The Social Scale of Social Media: The Conversational Index

I think it was Brian Dennis Ritchie, one of the inventors of Unix and C, who said "All large systems that work start as small systems that work." This is an enormously powerful thought, one that can be carried into all corners of life, business, and technology, and which resonates with today's notions about small, focussed, and quickly evolving Web 2.0 apps. I also think that this insight also is deeply relevant to social media.

While working at Corante, I had the opportunity to peer at the stats for all sorts of blogs that we had going. And one thing that became really obvious is that sucessful blogs -- ones that were currently viable and vibrant, and those that were on a growth trajectory from their start -- shared a common characteristic: The ratio between posts and comments+trackbacks (posts/comments+trackbacks) was less than one. Meaning that there was more conversation -- as indicated by the number of comments and track backs offered by readers -- than posting articles. I will call this the Converation Index, just to put a handle on it.

Here's the current picture for /Message, a CI of 80/102 = 0.784.

The down side? Those blogs that we started at Corante that did not take off, and subsequently went dormant, or were shuttered, had a Conversational Index greater than one: too much speech, not enough banter. And those that started badly seldom pulled out of the problems.

Perhaps it's all unsurprising, really. But this conversational metric is not hidden, per se -- I mean you can go to a blog and do the arithmetic -- but our expereince of this differential between blogs is generally just sensed rather than explicitly measured. That may be a mistake. Perhaps it should be as relevant to determining whether something is worth reading as Google juice and Technorati rank, but it is not reported, and not used by those search tools, as far as I know. These search engines simply count links, and who is linking -- which is a useful metric -- but these are relatively crude measures, and don't adequately measure the level of interactivity going on at blogs, I don't think. They are industrial grade metrics, good for comparing the top 5000 blogs, perhaps. But they don't really help a blogger with relatively light traffic to determine week to week, month to month, if what they are doing is satisfying to some group.

No, the Conversational Index is much better for the artisanal level of blogger. So I hope someone out there -- some bored toolsmith, or a computer science student looking for an interesting project -- will build a tool that will scan a blog, determine the CI, and provide the result as a chicklet that we can embed on our blogs. Even better would be a 30 day graph, like Tufte's sparklines, that shows the social interaction ebbing and flowing.

And of course, my thesis: any successful blog starts in a small way, but from the very beginning is highly social. It is a place, a shared space, not a container for articles. The best predictor of blog success -- aside from previous success in other blogs -- is the Conversational Index, because it contains the outcomes of many other small things done right.

[Update - Doc Searls corrected the Brian Dennis error in the first paragraph, and says he can't find the quote anywhere. Neither could I, but the C Programming Language text is not indexed on line. So who knows.]

tags: conversational+index, brian+ritchie, blogging, artisan+journalism, technorati, google, edward+tufte, sparklines, social+media, web+2.0

Comments

[Doc Searls]

Oh shit. My ratio sucks. I think I run less than a comment a day, vs. half a dozen posts or so.

Of course, my blogging environtment doesn't encourage comments.

And, I look for comments back on other blogs. I think I'd rather have them there anyway.

So... I dunno.

[DonDodge]

Stowe, another awesome post. I completely agree with the notion of a Conversation Index. I just wrote a post on this subject and linked to this post. I changed the formula a bit (Comments + Trackbacks)/ Posts= Conversational Index. So, for my blog the numbers were (166 comments + 90 trackbacks)/ 83 Posts = a Conversational Index of 3.08. Greater than 1.0 is good. Here is a link to my post and stats.
http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2006/02/the_conversatio.html

[RK]

Sometimes, perhaps more than we think, there's a whole lot of back and forth between two people, which adds to the comment count but does it mean the blog is vibrant? Perhaps, perhaps not. On the other hand (now I sound like an economist), too many commenters with hit-and-run comments don't contribute to vibrancy either. So, instead of looking solely at the # of comments, one should consider some sort of a weighted average of the # of comments, weighted by the # of commenters. This way, you get a better measure of the vibrancy of the blog. I don't think highly of trackbacks, so I'd say throw them out of the equation, they are mostly for attention-seekers.

RK

[Easton Ellsworth]

Stowe, great thoughts. I've responded to you at Business Blog Wire regarding this interesting way of calculating the conversational facet of a blog's relative importance (arrgh, the trackback failed). Please read it and let me know what you think:

http://www.businessblogwire.com/2006/02/my_thoughts_on_stowe_boyds_blo.html

[Ben Metcalfe]

Stowe, this is a simple yet great metric to really guage the true meaning of conversation within -- and between -- blogs.

I do think trackback screws this up a bit - my link to you on my blog post hasn't been successfully acknowleged by your blog (probably my WordPress's fault than yours - but clearly an example of one factor that can artificially affect a CI rating).

I also wonder whether the release of tools such as CoComments will improve the commenting within blogs?

My interface into blogs is usually via the newsreader, which is simply not conducive to leaving comments (I have to open the browser to load in the posts' web page, etc. And sometimes I am not online when I read my newsreader).

Hopefully tools like CoC will help us all increase our CI!

[Doc Searls]

Did you mean Dennis Ritchie, Dennis M. Ritchie, or DMR, as he is also known?

I've spent way too much time trying to find ""All large systems that work start as small systems that work", but all that comes up is this very post.

Here is a long list of Dennis Ritchie posts, including a few good ones, but no close approximations:

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/d/dennis_ritchie.html

By the way, the firts time I previewed this post, I had put that quote in a link, and your blog system removed the whole damn thing, even when I came back to the editing window. Is there a fix for a comment system set up to kill links? Sure hope so.

Anyway, your point with the quote is perfect. Why not remove the Brian Ritchie attribution, take off the quotes, and make this a Stowe Boyd original?

[Stowe Boyd]

Doc -

I turned on the switch to allow HTML in comments. Sorry.

I fixed Brian Dennis. I will keep sniffing for the source of the quote. If the statute of limitations hits, it's mine!

[Stowe Boyd]

Doc -

I did find this: "A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked." -- John Gall, Systemantics

[David Wiley]

I proposed something like this (but a little more nuanced) back in 2002: http://opencontent.org/docs/discussion09.pdf It relies on the threaded structure of comments on many blogs, but if you ignore this structure (e.g., in the case of blogs with flat comments) it would be fairly equivalent to what you have here...

[David Wiley]

Take a look at

http://opencontent.org/docs/discussion09.pdf

which is a similar method developed in 2002 which does something similar, but with slightly better resolution when discussions are threaded.

[Katie Paine]

This is brilliant! What would be great would be to develop a benchmark index - for example, what's an acceptable CI for political blogs, communications blogs, corporate blogs, media etc. That way you'd know how well you're doing. I also think you have to track these numbers over time. I think most blogs would be way over 1 -- but with regular measurement invariably comes improvement, right?

[Katie Paine]

We decided this was such a good idea, we incorporated into our blog-monitoring product, our CGMDashboard. Hope you don't mind.

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[Scott Allen]

What about links that show in Technorati, but for whatever reason didn't turn up in your blog as a Trackback? I seem to get a lot of those - apparently a lot of bloggers don't have outbound TB enabled.

[Scott Allen]

And I guess I'm off to a good start with my new blog, Linked Intelligence. After a week I'm at 0.5!

And I was relieved to calculate it for The Virtual Handshake: 0.91. After you and I first discussed this at dinner in Austin, I was expecting we were going to be higher than that.

I also like Don's inversion of it, so that a higher CI is better. Has that become the accepted norm?

[C. vd Berge]

This is a great first step towards measurement of the conversation on blogs.
The thing is though, that CI doesn't say anything about the type of conversation. I therefor suggest to introduce a Dialogue Index;

Please read my article on this here:
http://www.seo-portal.com/measuring-the-type-and-level-of-conversations-of-blogs/

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