Buddylist is the Center of The Universe 2.0: AOL and Head On
Wow. The hype and antihype is really swirling around the direction that AOL is taking with the project formerly know as AIMSpace, and which now looks likely to be called Head On, as I wrote about yesterday. The "MySpace Killer" meme culminated in a Business 2.0 blurb:
Indeed, word on the street has been that Time Warner's (Research) AOL would use its AIM instant messenger as a platform to jump on the social networking bandwagon. The B2Day blog reported in March that the project was codenamed "AIMSpace" and was expected to launch in mid-April. AOL exec Tina Sharkey argued that AIM was already the "largest social network in the world." The rumors got a bit louder this morning as AOL program manager Armughan Javaid confirmed existence of AOL's MySpace killer, claiming the service "will be open for non-members, and it will be kick-ass!"
Ted Leonsis jumps in:
Working on a product that "kills" another, popular product is just so...1999. Here's a better way of looking at it. The AIM Buddy List (which was introduced 10 years ago) was the orignial social network, and it has 43 million AIM and Buddy List users. We're working on adding functionality to AIM that will really open it up -- allowing developers, partners, and users to take part. It's going to be fun. Rather than thinking of it as a killer of anything, let alone MySpace, it will allow our millions of users to express themselves in new and interesting ways and become a catalyst for new communities to grow and flourish. We'll have more to say about it soon.
Jason Calacanis chimes in with the nobody is killing anybody spin. Doesn't anyone remember 1-2-3 killing Multiplan, or Word killing Wordstar? OS/2? Things do get killed off, people. Let's not get too "sweetness and light" over this.
And Mike at TechDirt argues that AOL is two years too late, and that MySpace can't be toppled.
The reality is that for most adults, MySpace is a social phenomenon that has not made a direct impact on us. It has been primarily limited to young adults and teens. There is still the opportunity for a social network for the rest of us, and it could well be based on the AIM buddylist. 43 million users is a good start.
I totally believe that the buddylist is the center of the "universe 2.0", this new world we are in: denizens of a newly enhanced online experience. AOL has a chance to make a run at the untapped market for a significantly improved social networking experience. The LinkedIn generation of so-called professional social networking 1.0 apps are so lame that they are ripe for obliteration by a new approach, and as I have been trumpeting for years, the instant messaging buddylist should be the heart of such an approach. There is an opportunity to kill off some or all of those apps, if not MySpace and Facebook, and AOL has a good story brewing, even if they are reluctant to actually show us anything yet. Or at least me.
I had lunch with some AOL guys yesterday, who said more or less the same thing as Ted. Stay tuned, its going to be cool, we can't tell you when it's coming out, but soon, real soon, like in May, maybe. They had me diverted by pointing me to the Triton beta -- not the current Triton release, mind you -- which I will fiddle with over the weekend on my son's PC since it's Windows only. Apparently it incorporates a lot of the Nerdvana IM client features I have been wishing for. For example, your buddies' presence indicates more than just on/off status. It can indicate new blog posts, they tell me.
Well, I am ready for something new, but if it all turns out to be Windows only, I am going to howl like a stuck pig.
>> Jason Calacanis chimes in with the nobody is killing anybody spin.
>> Doesn't anyone remember 1-2-3 killing Multiplan, or Word killing
>> Wordstar? OS/2? Things do get killed off, people. Let's not
>> get too "sweetness and light" over this.
Dang Stowe, you're old! breaking out the Wordstar!?!?!? respect!
As I said in my post things on the *Internet* rarely kill other things. There are a bunch of major portals, a bunch of IM services, a bunch of social networks, and a bunch of free email providers. This is not like the destktop software market at all... in that market you had big companies standardizing applications across tens of thousands of desktops at a time.
AOL doesn't need to beat MySpace or Friendster in my mind... we have to continue to offer great services to our customers. (oh wait, I really sound like a suit now don't I!).
best j
Posted by: Jason | April 21, 2006 at 05:54 PM
As I said in my blog about this, AOL will never be an innovator. Arrington's right to ask, where were they two years ago? The answer is, they were right where they are today, acting as the intermediary between unsophisticated users and the Web. They're the Catholic priesthood; the professional middlemen between the believer and Deity. That's not the sort of positioning that leads to innovation. Rather it leads to extinction. I predict AOL will become extinct in 7 years.
Posted by: Jeff | April 22, 2006 at 08:38 AM
Jeff - A few years ago, I owuld have made the same bet as you, but there really does seem to be something new going on at AOL. For example, their efforts in opening up the AIM platform, publishing the APIs, and so on. And the stuff that I hear coming down in Head On (or whatever it is going to be called) sound awesome.
Jason - Yes, I am wicked old. But there have been a lot of web apps that have died off. How many attempts at music sharing or selling have been closed down, now that iTunes is dominant? I predict that dozens of social networking apps will (or already have) close as the result of MySpace or second generation apps like Head On. There are six dozen efforts to be the best web 2.0 Office, and one of the contenders is likely to see convergence on their offering, and we will watch the rest close their doors.
At the same time, I agree with your point: AOL doesn't need to kill anyone off, in particular, to be successful with Head On. There is widespread ambivalence around social networking in the first place, and redefining it to be what we were already doing with IM is genius. And I am perhaps the world's biggest advocate for the buddylist as the center of the universe.
Posted by: Stowe Boyd | April 23, 2006 at 01:59 AM