Death Of The Browser
I wrote a piece the other day called Web 2.0 Angst and Promise, where I poked at (among other things) the idea that at some not-too-distant-time in the future Web 2.0 concepts would have become commonplace, and new and disruptive ideas would come into being. I waxed about the possible impact of new computing paradigms based on ubiquitous, mobile, and extremely powerful handheld devices.
But a stray comment on that post this morning suggested another idea:
Web 3.0 has to be the death of the browser!posted by Stewart | May 11, 2006 at 08:24 am
Think about that.
So much of our current thinking about computing is based on the transition from desktop computing to web computing. The established metaphor was rich applications running locally on our PCs, and data managed local to the PC or LAN. We have sort of transitioned to a Web-centric viewpoint, but only partially. We do a lot of our computer-based work using rich applications on the PC, like Office; this is supplemented by the browser, which opens our gateway to the Web, and serves as the context for all browsing, and as the container for web apps.
But what would a new paradigm look like, when we move completely to a Web based setting, based on always on and mobile devices, instead of sticking with PCs that were (really) designed for working at a desk, in a cubicle, 9-to-5?
Instead of a operating in the context of a Finder or Windows Explorer, that opens a view onto the PC harddrive and operating environment, there would be the Web. Just the Web. My harddrive (if I had one) would just be another addressable location on the Web. Local apps (if any) would be just other web applications, cached locally. And the browser? I might use dozens of applications that are specialized spin-offs of what feel something like browsers -- they surf the web, and render web pages -- but some are customized for reading and writing blogs (like a Flock, or an RSS reader), others for finances, some for photo sharing, others for collaboration, and so on.
The browser will explode into a thousand fragments, will spawn a thousand specialized offspring. They will share common DNA, and many of the components will remain common, but I predict a huge surge in this form of innovation, especially as we move toward mobile, ubiquitous, handheld, always on computing. Like the dinosaurs, the browser will apparently become extinct, but in fact will live on, as in the form of modern day birds, a thousand times lighter, faster, and smaller than their lumbering ancestors.
The form factor and design principles of PCs -- text and documents, keyboard, typing-as-principal-input, fat LCD, rich apps relying on rich OS -- are running up against the future of mobility -- video and streams, other-than-keyboard input, voice-or-touch-as-principal input, small display or goggles, web apps on thin OS -- and mobility will win out, and soon.
I see it. I want it. Give it to me.
I agree that we are seeing a radical shift to a web-based world but I think we are a long way from this working in practice. Ubiquitous WiFi and or WiMax is still some way off. I think about how it is still possible to go to places in our locality where there is no cell phone coverage. This means that the role of the mobile self-sustained computing device is secured for some time to come. We need to be able to function when the data-umbilical cord is temporarily severed.
What does this mean in the interim. I think it means that synchronization services will play a key role. We will need a transparent service running in the background that allows us to move our "stuff" to our data "home" on the web while still retaining copies of items we are actively working on our processing device of choice.
In the meantime I think there is some life left in the browser. My thinking is that we will see the browser explode in to "tear-off" applets that we can sprinkle on our desktop. I approached this in an open letter to browser developers. (see http://ekive.blogspot.com/2006/05/web-20-and-evolution-of-browser.html )
Posted by: Mark Scrimshire | May 11, 2006 at 06:56 AM
it wasn't throw away :)
What do you think Vista is for?
Posted by: Stewart | May 11, 2006 at 03:50 PM