Scott Karp on Has the MySpace Downturn Begun?
Scott Karp is trying to time the market with MySpace, and I think the downturn has begun:
[from Publishing 2.0: Has the MySpace Downturn Begun?]David Krug and others think the MySpace dip is cyclical, driven by spring break, finals, etc. Well, hmmm. Most spring breaks fall in March or early April — so it appears that extra free time drove MySpace to its peak — and then what? Studiousness swept the land as people got an early jump on studying for finals in mid April? And wouldn’t there have been a similar seasonal downturn last year?
I have been saying since the scquisition tha Fox would ultimately come to regret the fastastic price paid for MySpace. People will leave just as fast as they piled on, as soon as it is not longer hip. Like Yogi Berra said about some fashionable nightclub, "It's so crowded, nobody goes there anymore," and the same effects hold here.
This sort of interaction is inherently faddish, and once the daytrippers start to take over, the hipsters will find somewhere else to be hip. And there is nothing less cool than pushing Fox TV promos into the social stream. Expect that decline to accelerate.
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