Web 2.0 Angst, and Promise

A day for Web 2.0 angst.

Umair Haque wonders if Is 2.0 Over?:

is 2.0 over?

I mean that in the sense of: has most of the radical innovation from 2.0 already happened? I don't mean: can we still make $$? Clearly, the answer to that question is yes. Put another way: does 2.0 still have structural shifts to yield?

I could rehash the evidence, but I think most of you know it:

1) Yahoo and Google snapping up the potential competition before it grows to anything.

2) Not that there was much potential competition to begin with - VCs aren't exactly knocking it out of the park 2.0wise.

3) Accelerating imitation - nearly every new play these days is a simple rehash of old ideas (which is fine), or they miss the point entirely (hi brightcove).

4) Lack of vision. You know the innumerable debates about "what is 2.0"? Perhaps the reason we keep having them is because no one really has a vision - you know, the grand, game-changing, next big thing vision. Maybe it's not helpful that everyone's stuck fast to their ideas (hi, Free Culture guys, hi O'Reilly guys, hi VCs, hi media guys) and seems unwilling to consider anyone else's position.

5) TechCrunch talks more about Yahoo + Google than anything else :)

Fred Oliveira wonders Are we losing focus again?:

We’re losing focus on what’s important, again. The focus should be kept on user-centric applications, user-centric development and design and most importantly user-centric features. And if I’ve just repeated “user-centric” four times, that must mean something, right?

I thought we all had agreed, many months ago, that Web 2.0 was about people, not about news snippet generators or other randomly annoying flashes from the past. Innovation is key. Innovation, and the user. It still is, right?

It's perhaps too early to say 2.0 is over, but it will be at some point. Last week, at OnHollywood, Tony Perkins announced Web 3.0 (without any real technological rationale), an announcement that led to no fanfare in the web. A non-starter, Tony.

I have a few observations though, about focus and the fading of 2.0 over time:

1. Whatever follows 2.0 won't be called 3.0. It will be some radical movement away from the norms of 2.0. If in fact the norms of 2.0 are all about user experience and the central role of the user, it may run against that grain in some way, but more likely it will be a movement onto some new technologies that will supplant the current foundation of 2.0. For example, if in a few years, mobile computing devices become as powerful as computers but are the size of cell phones, and we start to make a break with the form factor of laptops, a new design paradigm could emerge based on ubiquitous real-time video interaction and voice-controlled navigation.
2. Focus always wavers, and is always changing. The success of new entrants in the market changes our perceprtions about what works. Fred is right to restate the basic principles, but at some point, those will gradually change as they become embedded in the popular consciousness as givens, and they will cease to sound revolutionary.
3. As the Giants consume the innovators, the disruptiveness of innovation -- the possibility that innovators will dethrone established players -- is minimized, and therefore one of the most generative aspects of innovation is completely absent in this revolution. If Web 2.0 is so great, should someone hold out to become a $1B company? Personally, I am holding out hopes for Jason Fried and the 37signals guys. He is so personally strong and is making so much headway, I can't see why he would settle for a few million and some SVP role at Microsoft or Yahoo. Sort of the Richard Branson of Web 2.0. It would be interesting if he starts to acquire other compementary players, like Blinksale.

I see Web 2.0 as the gateway to another era, not the era itself. Like Moses, who led his people to the Promised Land, but could not cross the River Jordan, Web 2.0 is going to take us out of the desert into something better, which we have no name for yet: but there is milk and honey on the other side.

tags: umair+haque, fred+oliviera, web+2.0, blinksale, jason+fried, 37signals

Comments

[Kris Olsen]

Being based here in the Midwest vacuum, I can offer this - If Web 2.0 IS happening, it is primarily on the two coasts, a few European cities, and Asia. It seems to be passionately pursued, debated, used, and reported with tech communities, tech media, and, oh yeah, the kids. Where I HAVE seen it, its the exception.

I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis, Stowe. The only thought I might add is that I've not seen any examples of Web 2.0 being aggressively promoted to enterprise environments that are starting to wrestle with declining productivity. There is a disconnect between the Web 2.0 'solution' and the enterprise 'problem'.

BTW, good luck with the /Message and Collaboration Loop blogs.

[Dimitar Vesselinov]

"...I've not seen any examples of Web 2.0 being aggressively promoted to enterprise environments that are starting to wrestle with declining productivity."

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[Stewart]

Web 3.0 has to be the death of the browser!