Fred Stutzman on Why They Are Leaving Myspace

Fred stares down the media mob who are asserting that MySpace is being overrun by old fogeys, and provides some insight into why peolple defect services like MySpace, in general. His research, with danah boyd, suggest that the core users of MySpace remain young folks. But people do leave:

[from Unit Structures: Why They Are Leaving Myspace]

More interesting, however, is the phenomenon of established users leaving SNS. The WSJ reported on Jenny Thompson, a MySpace native with 4,000 friends who deleted her profile. Indeed, SNS attrition is real, but it is hardly as alarming as the media makes it out to be? Why? Because social circles are fundamentally dynamic. Think back upon your life - how many social circles you've joined or left, the friends you've gained or lost over time. Our social networks are always in-flux, we are constantly joining and leaving social circles. An SNS is simply another one of these social circles - it is bound by the same rules as offline circles, so it is natural that individuals will join and leave.

In this analysis, there is a complicating factor. In the "real world", our social networks are not publicly articulated. When we decide to stop attending our book groups, we do not suddenly dissapear [sic: disappear] from all of our other social groups. When we delete our Myspace profiles, we do remove ourselves from all of the in-system groups with which we affiliate. Because SNS suicide represents a shunning of all groups, we commonly overattribute value to this action.

Users in an SNS are primarily concerned with how the SNS helps them negotiate the primary contexts in which they wish to articulate their identity. In more human terms, while there are many secondary social networks in the SNS, we are largely concerned with the primary social network that is relevant to our lives. As situational relevance shows, this primary social network changes throughout our lives - and our needs change accordingly. Once a social networking site stops addressing those needs, it becomes less valuable to us, often to the point it becomes a burden. Then we leave.

If social networks provide a value, it has to be contextual. An SNA connot provide some sort of blanket support for all sorts of people doing all sorts of things. As Clay Shirky recently pointed out in a Wired piece, there are myriad meganiches out there, with potentially millions of people in them. Apps that support the social needs, wants, and desires of folks in thos meganiches are going to be very different, otherwise they wouldn't do what they do. A wrench cannot do a very good job of ladling soup.

People will defect. When they get married, the dating sites won't be relevant. When people graduate, the school site won't be (for long) nearly as important as it was. When they buy a dog, Dogster might become interesting.

So there will be a constant churn in all these sites, and people will go from here to there.

tags: fred+stutzman, myspace, generational+shifts, social+networks, danah+boyd, clay+shirky

Comments

[H Tab]

I wouldnt count out myspace.com just yet I think the members just need a new place to call home. New sites like Vois.com may just provide that place. Targeted at the 25-54 year old user, Vois.com may just pickup that slack, while myspace.com bebo.com myyearbook.com and campusbug.com duke it out for the kids.

[Todd]

Over the past few years MySpace has introduced thousands (millions?) of people to a great idea...online community. Many Internet users were already part of some forum, game site, etc, but not of this magnitude. The issue for MySpace now is staying relevant to their current user base and ensuring other sites can't segment the market and take their customers. So many people think it will be easy to start a community for "active adults" or "34-45 year olds into science" or what have you. They will say that all they need is just 1% of the MySpace crowd to have a viable site that can be sustained by ad-revenue.

Of course this market is ALL about the "network effect." As people join on, even more people join on as the thing becomes more valuable (like fax machines). So the new sites will only become valuable if they can garner a big enough market share, which in turns garners an even bigger market.

At Digital Hollywood last month I heard numerous people mention to me that they are starting a MySpace type site, but for a specific audience. Well, I think it is a great idea, but want to make sure they have a clear exit strategy in case they don't get the 1% they need. MySpace is still relevant and though they may lose some customers, it will be tough for anyone to take a large share.

Todd
Founder and CEO MBRIDGE
www.mbridge.com

[Chris Bottomly]

I read your comment above Todd and I definitely agree that for anyone to grab a piece of the myspace.com share will be a gigantic feat at best but we have seen it before. Napster to Itunes, tivo to cable-based tivo like devices. Hey Yahoo to Google. It can be done and happens alot, the question is to who? There are lots of better myspaces out there - cleaner UI's better features etc. Time will tell is it multiply.com aimpages.com, bebo.com or Vois.com. I dont know but someone will emerge as the 30-50 yr old demographic leader.
Chris

[Barry]

Any thoughts on this
• Publicly Traded MedStrong International Corporation Announces Plans to Launch an Online Social Networking Community

AOL Canada Founder and Former Chief Executive Officer Appointed President and CEO of MedStrong International
Thursday January 18, 9:45 am ET

DELRAY BEACH, Fla., Jan. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MedStrong International Corporation (OTC Bulletin Board: MDSI; MDSIW) announced today that Stephen J. Bartkiw has been appointed by the Board of Directors to serve as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of the Internet company, effective immediately. Bartkiw brings over 20 years experience in technology, Internet and interactive services to MedStrong as the founder and former CEO of AOL Canada Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of America Online.
Positioning Bartkiw at the company's helm falls on the heels of MedStrong's recent announcement of plans to adopt a Web 2.0 business platform and launch a social networking site.

"Having Stephen Bartkiw onboard as President and CEO perfectly aligns with the company's new direction," said Gary Schultheis, the company's former President who concurrently becomes the new chairman of MedStrong International. "[Stephen's] reputation and depth of industry expertise is an invaluable resource for MedStrong."

Bartkiw's depth of experience includes positions at two of the largest media and communications companies in Canada before joining AOL in 1995 to launch a uniquely Canadian online service as founder of AOL Canada, where he also served as CEO until 2001. He has continued his involvement in the rapidly changing industry as a director of both public and private technology companies.

"As interactive services and technologies continue to mature and evolve, they become more and more ingrained into the fabric of our every day lives," said Bartkiw from MedStrong headquarters in Delray Beach, Florida. "With the company's new focus, we intend to build communities of interest by leveraging member generated content as the catalyst for communication with like-minded individuals."

About MedStrong International Corporation

MedStrong International Corporation is a publicly traded development stage company in the state of Delaware and operates under the stock ticker symbols MDSI / MDSIW. MedStrong is headquartered in Delray Beach, Florida, recently named a 2006 Top Ten Digital City by the Center for Digital Government, which recognizes the most technology-advanced cities in America.

[marvin jacob]

I guess this is where they are going

VOIS.Com Nominated for Favorite Large Social Network at Open Web Awards Alongside MySpace, Facebook, LinkedIn and Bebo
BOCA RATON, Fla., Dec. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- VOIS, Inc., http://www.vois.com/ (pronounced "Voice") one of the faster growing, global social networking communities for people ages 25 to 50, announced today that it has been nominated by Mashable's "Open Web Awards" for Favorite Large Scale Social Network under the category: Mainstream and Large Scale Networks. The Open Web Awards, hosted by Mashable.com, are the first ever online, open collaboration awards event, to recognize the best online communities representing web 2.0. Mashable ranks among the Top 100 blogs worldwide with in excess of 5 million monthly pageviews and is the world's largest blog on social networking. VOIS.com was named alongside other large social networks such as MySpace, Facebook, LinkedIn and Bebo.

The award ceremony will take place at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco on January 10, 2008. The Open Web Awards were sponsored by: Reddit.com, WIRED, Cohn and Wolfe, Quintura, RetailMeNot and Streakr.

Anyone looking to be a part of the vote may do so before 11:59pm PST on Sunday, December 16th 2007, simply by going to http://mashable.com/2007/12/06/owa-voting-large-scale/

The Ten Nominees for Favorite Mainstream or Large Scale Social Network are:

Bebo.com Facebook.com LinkedIn.com MocoSpace.com MySpace.com NetLog.com OurLikes.com Uber.com VOIS.com Wishdone.com