Looking Ahead: Ten Thoughts For 2007
Ok, I am bucking the trend for year end prognostication by doing this in January, but I was sick for most of the last week of December, when I had planned to do it. But here's ten observations about what I expect to see in 2007.
- Social Tools -- The social angle for web 2.0 apps (focused on the individual, not the group) will become the dominant groove of all successful web apps. A reasonably well-defined collection of features and functionality will become consistently used across these apps -- tags, profiles, social media posts, RSS feeds -- so that the core notion of "social architecture" will become commonplace.
- Death of Newspapers -- One or more major US papers will cease delivering newsprint to our driveways, cutting the link to completely unwinnable economics. [Note that the WSJ is 12% closer to that goal today, with the new tabloid form factor, and shrinking the newshole.]
- Battle For Livingroom -- I am betting that Apple will release (or announce) some collection of technology that will position it as the victor in the battle for the livingroom. Presumably based about iPod technology and iTunes. Major hollywood partnerships. Some game gizmo will follow, probably in 2008.
- Apple Phone -- The Apple "iPhone" -- which has to be called something else -- will be a smash hit, and will destablize the cell phone industry like the energy crisis did to the auto industry. It's not just about how many cents per minute, people. It's about lifestyle.
- Online advertising -- Someone will successfully fuse social networking and online advertising. If I am interested in some topic, like programming in Ruby, or Vespa scooters (along with thousands of like-minded others), then sponsoring an online watering hole for aficianados should make sense. But no one has cracked the code yet, except for the mega-sites like MySpace and Yahoo. This should be the area that traditional media companies would move into, if they had any sense.
- Windows Vista -- Microsoft will find the going hard on efforts to get Vista adopted, and new security scandals will continue to plague them.
- Social Awareness -- Twitter and Jaiku are just the start of an enormous trend: social awareness. The ability to publish status to a social network will become the biggest small trend of 2007, and will reemerge in dozens of apps.
- Nerdvana -- At least one major company will launch an app that meets the notions of the Nerdvana system I have been writing about for the past few years.
- Meme tracking -- Personalized, customizable meme tracking will replace RSS readers. [Gabe Rivera, Kevin Burton: are you listening?]
- Geoloco -- Widespread use of GPS in cell phones will spark a new wave of interest in geolocational services, and will represent the logical bridge between online and offline social interactions.
Whew. Short and sweet. I plan to expand on these themes throughout 2007.
In the beginning there was resistance, lots of resistance. Then after a couple of high profile sellouts their was panic, every speculator was going to be rich, quickly followed by the big bang. What a ride.
What caused the last big bang is about to cause the next even the mainstream press can feel it. But this time the big balled investors are a little more cautious than before, yet it seems just as stupid.
I recall one of the first bangers Lastminute.com in a high profile sellout got 850 million UKP, valuing Lastminute on a par with W.H.SMITHs. This was for a little domain name that they picked up for 10 dollars, a couple of PHP coders, and a double page spread in the Daily Mail singing their praises. What a scam.
After that everyone was hooked and they were all going to be rich. Overnight the internet changed from being a bit geeky, very innovative, and strictly non-commercial to one big supermarket with every vender spamming you with their latest rubbish.
Of course it went pop, and when it did it was great. For all the commercial interests that were polluting cyberspace with their get rich quick spam, had had their balls crushed and in the aftermath we were left with a much quieter terrain where the speculators had been burnt and innovation could once again flourish.
Don get me wrong I have nothing against making money but the nature of these speculators have a very negative impact on the general terrain of the internet and heres why.
Firstly the vast majority of the venture capital investment that is injected into startups is used to not only prop up donkeys but more importantly is distorting the general playing field.
This manifests in some very destructive ways. Noticeably, most of the real innovation that is at the core of the new functions that emerge online, is created by small groups of programmers / designers who tackle problems and create ingenues solutions which enrich our everyday lives. These are largely small groups of underfunded (if at all) individuals.
Coupled with this parody is the power of the press, and I'm not talking about the mainstream press I am referring to the new breed of Power-Ranger blogers who just like in the days of the specific industry related 'trade magazines' are the current imbeciles of their time.
So you have a small group of technology related Blogers who have managed to harness a captive audience but who are ignorant to programming, design, and largely technology for that matter but who have found themselves with the 'important' title of chef bloger, and who make it their business to blog about what they consider is newsworthy or important.
Just as with the old trade press journals you are left with a corporatised view on the world where the dinner table talk ranges from who's been fired to who's just managed to get VC to the tune of 568 million.
Clearly this is the scope of the general table chatter and a brief look at Michael Arrington Techcrunch you will see the same old traditional trade journal style of so-called news (hysteria) being covered.
But burred by these trade like journals is the real startup discussion. The real news is not in who's about to loose 586 Million because they have invested it into a pile of donkey shit but rather what's happening on the ground.
The innovative ground floor is once again being crushed by an ambitious bunch of ignorant money grabbing speculators who in their hysteria do not know the value of a domain name let alone an online travel agent.
This is not to say that innovation will stop or the current wave of Web2.0 startups won't flourish as some will, but the survivors of the next big bang wont be the those empty black holes who are being jacked up by VC, instead they will be the the low profile (unfunded) innovators who continue at their own pace despite the noise of what's supposed to be hot, in the race to be a me-too copycat company
Posted by: The Year of the Big Bang | January 03, 2007 at 09:33 AM
1.-Social Tools
Agree, but they will begin to narrow down even more than what we saw in 2006, it will also reach a glut this year, i can easily see 10-15 of social apps debuted in 200-2006 going bust.
2.-Death Of Newspapers.
We are not there yet, the real death of newspapers will not happen until phones get to umpc levels. and that is going to be in 2010.
but of course that this will make competition harder and newcomers almost non-existant.
3.-Battle for the living room..
My money is still on MS, xbox360 is already a gateway into the living, room with 10.2 million consoles in place, the xbox360 first numbers on the xbox live entertaiment arketplace are starting to pour in, they topped all expectations for such a short release.
the battle for the living room will be in hands of the video games consoles and the new to be expected tivo developments that will resonate during 2007.
There is a lot of why´s here, is one of the things i follow the most.
4.-Apple Phone.
Not likely. have you checked total units sold by the 3 big cellphone companies?
the apple phone would have to sell 100 million units to put the industry into hazard, i will make a bold predictions saying their first model will be only a test of the road and will sell around 10 millions units and apple will suffer to meet demand givent he innards and because of the model they want to try, the industry will have plenty of time to react.
5.-Online Advertising.
Yes, a very big move of this must materialize this year,i have thought a lot on it, i think i got it on how it could be done.
6.-Windows Vista.
I am not even commenting on this. i will reserve my comments for March (why march? that i am not saying)
7.-social awereness
agreed
8.-Nerdvana
i don´t know nothing about it
9.-Meme Tracking
As in mainstream or in the understream?
Understream: i can see it gaining ground.
Mainstream: not even likely.
10.-Geoloco
This already started in 2006, this is more popular in europe and of course asia.
Posted by: Avatar | January 04, 2007 at 12:15 AM