Esther Dyson on The Coming Ad Revolution

Reston: Esther is going to invest in Dopplr, because sociality changes the way that advertising works:

[from The Coming Ad Revolution - WSJ.com by Esther Dyson]

[...]

Each user determines who will get into his own garden, whether friends or vendors. Look at Dopplr (where I plan to become an investor), a site for travelers. I list my trips, and see how they intersect with my friends' itineraries. "Oh, we'll both be in London April 4? Let's get together!" Or, "Juan and Alice will be in town next Tuesday. Let's hold a dinner!" You can imagine or visit equivalent approaches for books (a hypothetical Amazon 2.0, new and more personalized), clothes (Glam.com and Stardoll.com), and even money management.

So what's the business model? I'll "friend" British Airways, which will say, "We see you're going to Moscow next month. Why not fly through London and we'll give you 10,000 extra miles?" I'm no longer in a bucket of frequent travelers, my privacy protected. I'm an individual with specific travel plans, which I intentionally make visible to preferred vendors. British Airways, of course, will pay Dopplr a handsome sponsorship fee to be eligible to be my "friend" (just as a Nike rep might pay to sponsor a basketball game and be part of the community). Someday NetJets may show up, offering to ferry me and my friends to a conference we'll be attending together.

I'm far more likely to respond to BA or NetJets within a trusted site, and for a specific offer, than I am to heed their ad while reading a newspaper article on the troubles in Russia. (As for Orbitz, my old standby: After five years, it still doesn't acknowledge my preferred airlines.)

The new model creates a more trusted environment for reaching high-value, frequent purchasers, whether of airline tickets, electronics, clothes or other items. Where does that leave the less-frequent purchasers? Probably looking to their friends rather than to advertising for advice. I'm an expert on travel; my friends may look to me for hotel choices. When I'm in the mood to buy a book or a new computer, I'll check out what my friends on Facebook are doing.

I wrote years ago that in the future, all e-commerce would be socialized. Lools like we are about to pass over that horizon.

[In passing, I learned about this piece in an email from Dopplr, announcing their "Singapore" release, with a number of features that I have been playing with over the past month or so. For more info, check out their blog.]

Comments

[Ben Metcalfe]

"I list my trips, and see how they intersect with my friends' itineraries. "Oh, we'll both be in London April 4? Let's get together!" Or, "Juan and Alice will be in town next Tuesday. Let's hold a dinner!" You can imagine or visit equivalent approaches for books (a hypothetical Amazon 2.0, new and more personalized), clothes (Glam.com and Stardoll.com), and even money management"

I can also imagine this working the other way around though...

"Oh, it says on Amazon that Stowe has already bought a copy of Book Foo, and so I'll see if I can borrow it after him rather than buy it. I see he's looking to buy Book Bar, and I have that.

and

"It says on Glam.com that 3 of my friends already has that dress and so I *won't* be buying one because I don't want to turn up to a party and have a clash".

Now, I'm all about empowering the individual and I think moving into this kind of relationship with the customer is great.

But if I put my other cap on, I'd have to say that information is power, and from the vendor's perspective, customers having such information may cancel out any additional sales, and at worse could help customers cut out the middle man all together (eg go direct to a person who has the book rather than buy a copy).

That creates new opportunities - Amazon connecting the customers to friends who already have a book -- but that's far less lucrative than book sales. It strikes me more that this is an example of Chris Anderson's "everything becomes free" meme.

[Leroy Dyson]

wow, this will make my globe-flitting soooo much easier!

[Harald Felgner]

We had this 2 weeks ago. Have a look: http://www.felgner.ch/2008/02/the_coming_ad_revolution.html.

[Loic]

Hey Stowe, here is a video I shot in Davos of Esther explaining just that, in case you're interested:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=imu0Q25sBfM

[Fabio De Bernardi]

@Ben Metcalfe - good point, I'm with you.

The Dopplr-British Airways example fits (btw WAYN.com - to name one - already does this sort of things and they already have millions of users) but the same approach wouldn't work that many times across different markets.
For example travelling from London to Moscow or Shangai implies that you NEED a plane (if you're not completely nuts), therefore the link between the service (Dopplr, WAYN, tripadvisor... whatever) and the information/advertisement makes a lot of sense.
On the other hand buying clothes, books or other goods is seldom a need like taking a plane, therefore the link between the service and the info/advert loosen grip.

[Stowe Boyd]

Ben - I don't think that in general friends buying behavior leads us away from covergence. If you are going out to eat, you are more inclined to try a restaurant a friend has recommended.