10 Predictions For 2009

Sure. Why not? I’ll take the plunge at some predictions for 2009. (Despite Brad Feld.)

1. Steve Jobs will step down as Apple CEO. What has he got to prove? His health is not great even if he is not suffering from a relapse of pancreatic cancer. The company’s stock has absorbed all the bad news and fear, so it’s time to turn things around. Get someone else in as CEO, and let Jobs serve as Chariman of the Board.


2. Twitter will be acquired. Early peeks at enterprise version of Twitter cause a stir. Cisco, IBM, Microsoft, and Google get into a bidding war. Cisco finally prevails, reworks its social software strategy around Twitter.


3. Apple releases iPhone/iPod/netbook thing in late 2009. A ‘palmtop’ or ‘handtop’ style iPod is released, with controlled applications (a la Apple Store), a 9 inch screen, option for built-in data modem, but no keyboard. (Others are writing about this too.)


4. Google acquires New York Times. Google steps in at the final hour, just before the New York Times is about to close (being unable to pay $500M debt that is coming due), and takes the Gray Lady into the next millennium. Google News has a whole new meaning as Google rethinks the ‘wire services’, ‘reporting’, and ‘journalism’. Hires Jay Rosen as Editor-in-Chief.


5. Someone launches an innovative start-up that rethinks the premises of blog technology. And it is not former Six Apart, Blogger, or WordPress staff. Redesigned around the new Web: microstreaming, fragmented commentariat, and rich media. [PS I’d like to help, if you are out there waiting.]


6. Wikipedia board drops Jimmy Wales, switches to ad revenue model. Please.


7. Yahoo Gets New CEO. Yahoo’s board finally finds some celebrity white knight to take on the ailing giant, and rethink it from the ground up. Not Sue Decker. Not a Hollywood guy. I suggest Tina Sharkey, formerly at AOL, and now heading up BabyCenter.


8. TechCrunch and Huffington Post acquired by News Corp. In a major move into the Web, News Corp creates a new division for Web publishing, and puts Arianna Huffington in charge of it. Arrington leaves to become a VC.


9. Google Chrome grows. Firefox and IE still dominate, but Chrome slowly making inroads.


10. Amazon acquires Dopplr and Brightkite as part of a new push into social travel and geolocation. Amazon starts to socialize its commerce orientation by launching a new service dedicated to travel and dining, kicked off by acquisition of Dopplr and Brightkite, and fusing them into a combined geolocational service. Marko Ahtisaari, CEO of Dopplr, becomes head of the new entity.

A few of these are based on others’ predictions, some are fanciful, others just hopeful (like the salvation of the NY Times).