You Say It’s Your Blirthday, You’re Gonna Have A Good Blog!

I haven’t seen much going on at Paolo Valdemarin’s blog recently — although my reading habits are very spotty — so it was kind of a sobering experience to read his 4 blog birthday, or blirthday, post.

Blogging allowed me to meet the most interesting people of my life, to get an infinite number of ideas, to develop new products, find new partner, new customers, to learn more then I had ever learned before. It changed my life.

I’m not blogging much anymore on the English part of my blog, I write a little bit more on the Italian side. I’m not involved in many conversations or I don’t feel I have much to add to what is discussed. The atmosphere is changing, pretty soon you won’t even be able to say that blogging is not “mainstream media”.

Hmmm. Kind of sad to think of the fading of that joy and involvement. A number of people have been commenting on the change blowing in the breeze in blogland. Threads like Dave Winer’s blog suicide note, Robert Scoble’s screechiness, Jeneane Sessum’s Shitting Point, and Joi Ito walking away from blogging to immerse himself in Second Life — it all points to a fundamental change in the world of blogging.

Personally, I have been blogging since 1999, although in a interrupted way. You can see my first blog, Message From Edge City, only in the Wayback Machine at the Internet Archives, since the hosting company went under, and sold the servers before I could get my posts off:

I think one of the reasons I still have a fresh feeling for the whole thing is that I have had periods of low or no blogging along the way, and I have changed my blog a lot. Since Message From Edge City (MFEC) I have penned Timing, Instant Messaging, Get Real, and now /Message. I also contributed to a number of group projects, like Operating Manual for Social Tools (with danah boyd and David Weinberger), and Centrality (with Stan Wasserman and others). I don’t remember the official start date for my blogging, so I won’t have a Blirthday of my own. I will just celebrate Paolo’s with him.

I am too hypomanic to give into the gloom and doom that many are feeling about the shifting currents in the Blogosphere, but I will offer some completely unsolicited advice for staying fresh. It’s not as corporate as Nick Carr’s heavyhanded riff on Robert Scoble’s recent spell of misguided lashing out at the rising tide of unquiet about Vista and Office slippage, but then I have already written a piece explicitly for Robert (What We Can Learn From Scoble’s Lament). No, these ideas are just for anyone who wants to retain the sense of fun and even joy that can come from the daily ritual of writing.

  1. Get out of the rut — Write about something you have never written about before. Read new people. Wander around. Get out of your RSS reader.
  2. Interview smart people — Even if you think you have nothing new to write, there are others out there not suffering from that delusion.
  3. Try new techniques — Tired of facing the empty screen? Try audio or video. Write a poem.
  4. Help others — I recently read Deep Survival by Laurence Gonzales, and it turns out that one of the characteristics of survivors is that they are altruistic. Even in moments of great danger they hold on and work towards survival by consciously choosing to help others, or try to survive so that loved ones won’t suffer.
  5. Change your blog — Change the template, add new widgets, create a sideblog with comments about your aspirations, travel, or geolocation. Fool with it with the goal of making it a better representation of your relationship to the world.

In the final analysis, you have to stay green or you are fading, fast. My personal mantra is “always beginning, never finished,” and it is that sort of attitude that brings me back, day after day, week after week, month after month, to the task — and joy — of writing.

Blogs - The Stage of our Lives

I think of Robert Scoble as a friend, and I appreciate the way he has come to the defense of Dave Winer — if that is the right word — in the newest twist of Dave’s recent travails.

I don’t want to dig into the pros and cons of Dave’s situation — aside to say that I hope he continues to blog despite his blog suicide comments — but instead to reflect on the forces at work on prominent bloggers, and how we need to rethink the issues of persona, personality, and the personal and private.

  • Personality — Good bloggers’ personalities come through, so they become public property, not the possession of the bloggers. Robert has the optimism, excitely, naivete, and infectious charm of a teenager, as well as some of the negatives you might associate with a teenager, like the ability to get angry when people aren’t “fair.” The point is that the writer’s personality comes through, and the community knows all about us, and like residents of a small village they think of us as “theirs” including our foibles. Dave Winer’s readers know him: he is standing in plain sight. You have to take the crankiness, misanthropy, and worldweariness along with his evident genius, and his wonder and delight he has in the world (I thank Doc Searls for that insight). But when the negative sides of our public personalities are made evident, we shouldn’t be surprised when community jumps in and talks about it, even if it rankles: again, just like hateful rumors in a small village. (The other day someone posted that he was dropping me from his blogroll even though he thought what I write is ‘original’ because I am too much of a hippy, free spirit type. Ouch! Dead on, man!) We need thick skins, as I pointed out in this recent list of blogger talents, or else we have to give it up and become hermits.
  • Persona — By becoming bloggers and writing from such a vantage point as Robert’s, our self can become larger than life. Some magic that is buried in the human psyche makes the figures leaping about on the stage a representative of something larger than that single person. The actor, writer, poet, or artist is a sort of shaman, responding to a higher calling. And, as such, I believe we lose something of ourselves in exchange for the experience. Our personas are not our own, truly; we are part of something larger. And that larger thing includes both dark and light sides. People know us through our personas, and they expect us to stay in our roles, and to play our parts. If we have done a good job of portraying ourselves, up here in the limelight, then they will be surprised — maybe angry — when we step out of character: and I mean character in both the theatrical sense and the sense of ‘person of good character’. And sometimes they will be angry when we do things in character, because the role we are playing is not always the hero in the story. But it’s not us that defines the character we are playing: it’s the larger group, the world beyond the footlights.
  • The Personal and Private — Whatever we bring into the role, into the role, becomes a prop. Even it is ‘ours’ in some sense — like a personal relationship, or a project, or some idea — once we bring it on stage, it is no longer personal. I write about my relationship with Greg Narain, a good buddy, and someone I work with a lot on many projects. Once it’s out here, then its no longer a personal relationship: it is a public relationship. If you want it to be personal and private don’t blog about it! That should be simple. You can’t expect the community out there to be able to determine through some nuanced reasoning that these things are public and/or part of the public persona, and these other things are personal, and although made public, are still not up for public discussion. So, I recommend that people not discuss business dealings, love affairs, or family issues unless you want your blog — and the blogs of others who connect with you — to start to feel like a paparazzi nightmare.

I was one of many who slammed Mena Trott for the obvious ironies involved in her yelling at Ben Metcalfe for his backchannel remarks at Les Blog in the middle of her talk about a “Kinder, Gentler Blogosphere,” and I feel the same sort of off-ness about Robert’s tone in recent posts about Dave Winer.

It’s off because its easy to get confused when things “get personal” in a negative sense, even though much of what goes on in blogging is the outgrowth of living in the first person. We have to accept the dark with the light, we have to develop thick skins, and we have to remain authentic, all at the same time.

So it’s completely reasonable (and in character) for Robert to tell people that they are wrong about Dave, that they are being unfair, and that they should stuff it. But he goes too far to state that once the mob has burned Dave at the stake, they will turn and burn Robert, and then the the rest of us. No, they won’t. Dave has worn his persona well for years, and he shouldn’t be surprised that the mob arrives with torches and rope. I don’t think he is. It’s also fine for Robert to howl at them, to tell them they are unjust, and that it’s wrong. Some of them might listen, but most will be unmoved by his entreaties, even though it is in character, and noble.

If Robert is disillusioned at this apparent mistreatment, then I suspect his voice will deepen, he will mature, and we will all of us be better off for that, including him. His pain will not remain his own, however, it will ours, collectively, as the drama is played out in front of us. And we will all be made better, and wiser, because Robert’s innocence is torn in this passion play.

In mythic drama, this would be the time for the young hero, deeply wounded by implacable enemies, to take a trip, a quest. So taking a week off and thinking deep thoughts might be called for, not only psychologically, but mythically. And I expect more great things from Robert in the future, and the same is true, although from a vastly different angle, for Dave, wherever their personas take them.

[Update: Jeneane weighs in with wise words: get back to writing, because the lynch mob can’t get through security.]

Ron Jeffries on Winer’s Blog Suicide Note?

Put aside all the questions about Winer’s plans to quit blogging. Ron Jeffries has a simple notion as to why he is contemplating blog suicide. He’s not tired, or suffering a midlife crisis: he’s in love:

[from Winer’s Blog Suicide Note?]

My remote psychological profiling service has uncovered a far more interesting, and — depending on your point of view– more troubling reason for the Winer Proclamation.

I have $20 that says Dave Winer has fallen in love. If my premise is true (it may not be..) Dave really has no choice. His mystery girl friend may simply refuse to play second fiddle to Scripting News.

The Jeffries Winer Hypothesis is a powerful explanation for Winer’s recent behavioral changes. But there’s something we all need to think about.

Is the world ready for one or more Little Dave Winers?

I’ll take that bet, Ron. Dave’s ennui is arising from his much publicized falling out with the world (see his post about friendship and the acrimonious feuding with Adam Curry, and other business partners [Update 3/16/06: like this newest mess with Rogers Cadenhead]), and his very human desire to be popular and influential, even when the blogosphere is expanding exponentially.

But I hope he does fall in love. That might convince him to keep blogging.

Hugh Macleod on When God Asked Me To Take Over

Inspired by Dave Winer’s impending blog suicide:

[from gapingvoid: when god]

I remember when God asked me to take over for Him. As I was inventing RSS at the time, I sadly had to turn him down. But imagine how much better the Universe would have been.

As I said yesterday, Dave needs to lighten up, get a life, get laid, find a hobby, whatever. Maybe he does need to stop blogging for a while. I took 9 days off last fall and rethought everything in my work life, leading to firing myself from Corante.

But I am amazed that this continues to be top-of-mind news, especially because he hasn’t stopped blogging, he only said that maybe he would, maybe at the end of the year. We might all be dead of avian flu by then, or living in a dictatorship, or counting the dead from a nuclear war in West Asia. Let’s get on with it people.

Dave Winer Threatens Suicide, Kinda

I think that Matthew Ingram, in Okay, now Dave is starting to scare me, is really getting the subtext of Dave Winer’s ‘I’m Going To Stop Blogging’ post.

What he’s doing is threatening suicide: either figuratively, seriously or both.

I’m feeling the stress of all the fighting, and age, and I’m satisfied that I have enough money to retire on now. Why not let me go, quietly and peacefully, I’ll stop writing my blog, I’ll stop developing new stuff, you can be me if you want, I won’t be in your way.

The guy is lamenting his age — hey, I’m 52 and you don’t hear me bitching — and how tired he is, and that he can’t rally himself for another go.

Jeez, Dave, take some time off, go to the beach, get laid, whatever. Just don’t jump off that bridge, man. There’s still good things to do. Chill out. Take up a hobby. But don’t be so absolute. And you’ve always been edgy enough for people like me to believe that you have it in you. But please don’t do it.

[Update: Scoble revisits this meme (see Link: Scobleizer - Microsoft Geek Blogger � Overwhelmed with pitches, Dave, say it isn’t so!), and says that he is not the perfect, well-oiled machine he used to be:

You might say “who cares?” And you’d be missing the point. It’s the small things on blogs that matter to me. It’s the small things that make us human. Increasingly our blogs have lost their humaness. We’ve become marketing machines.

Like I said, we need to proceed on a human footing. See The Blog Commons: What Is Uncommon?, which is actually a different take on the same issue: can human scale save us from the blogosphere’s explosion?]

Clay Shirky: Social Software is The Experimental Wing of Political Philosophy

Clay Shirky has nailed a manifesto on the door, here at the High Church of Technocracy at ETech. In a nutshell, his thesis is that we have a moral responsibility — those of us whose purpose is the development of social technologies — to explore the social contract between the users and owners of online interaction. More importantly, he calls us to a higher goal: to discover the most productive patterns for group self-moderation so that social tools can not only ‘work’ in a technological sense, but so that we can craft techniques that shape culture into positive channels. He argues that human society, as a whole, needs us to get this right, since we are in essence the experimental wing of political philosophy. His contention is that if we don’t get this right, meaning developing a Rosseau-like social contract where the rights of the individual are upheld, then we may be surrendering the future to Hobbesian tyrannies, both online and everywhere else.

I found it particularly funny that Clay used Dave Winer’s unilateral conversion of an once open mailing list into a centralized, moderated mailing list (which led to quite a howling by the members of the group) as the prototypical example of freedom devolving into tyranny.

Clay has asked us to become involved in the specification of the pattern language of moderation, which is the necessary precondition for deep understanding of the future social contract as realized in the pervasive social architecture now emerging.

To get involved, check out the wiki, which Clay says has reached the Alan Kay point — good enough to begin arguing about it — at http://social.itp.nyu.edu/shirky/wiki.

Unconferences: But Aren’t There More Dimensions?

Doc Searls recently posted that he was headed out for several ‘non-unconferences’ — naming Etech (where I am right now), and SXSW as examples. Marc Canter launched into a tirade, where he stated — accurately, I think — that those two events are not unconferences at all, based on misreading Doc’s post. He subsequently updated the post, when people pointed out that he missed the ‘non’.

Perhaps coincidentally, Dave Winer wrote a post called What is an unconference?, that outlines the core features of unconferences:

This observation may turn out to be the Fundamental Law of Conventional Conferences.

The sum of the expertise of the people in the audience is greater than the sum of expertise of the people on stage.

It’s probably much worse than that. My guess is that if you swapped the people on stage with an equal number chosen at random from the audience, the new panelists would effectively be smarter, because they didn’t have the time to get nervous, to prepare PowerPoint slides, to make lists of things they must remember to say, or have overly grandiose ideas about how much recognition they are getting. In other words, putting someone on stage and telling them they’re boss probably makes them dumber. In any case it surely makes them more boring.

Turning things around

So then, how do you turn things around so that we can harness the expertise we just discovered and get a discussion moving efficiently and spontaneously without forcing the interesting conversations into the hallway. I wanted to see if there was a way to get the hallway ideas to come back into the meeting room. It turns out there was.

First, you take the people who used to be the audience and give them a promotion. They’re now participants. Their job is to participate, not just to listen and at the end to ask questions. Then you ask everyone who was on stage to take a seat in what used to be the audience. Okay, now you have a room full of people, what exactly are they supposed to do? Choose a reporter, someone who knows something about the topic of discussion (yes, there is a topic, it’s not free-form) and knows how to ask questions and knit a story together.

And, despite the fact that I seldom agree 100% with Dave, I buy in on this unconference definition.

But I don’t agree with the implicit notion that there are two kinds of conferences in the world. I think there is a short list of dimensions, not just one. And here they are.

Continue reading this post at Conferenza.

Steve Gillmor on Idiot Wind

 

Steve Gillmor says I was way off with my recent post about RSS (Reads, Not Feeds). (In fact, he titled his post, Idiot Wind, which might be his characterization of my speaking voice, but I doubt it.)

Stowe Boyd’s post about RSS is flawed. Flawed in that it is totally wrong. Scoble is right. Stowe is not. RSS will continue to dominate and eventually suck all the oxygen out of the glorious Web as we currently adore it. We as in Stowe. What possibly leads Stowe to the conclusion that RSS will not absorb all of the wonderful (sic) Web characteristics like blogrolls, whirling beanies, and other smoke and awe? RSS is the Web, Stowe. It’s the Web on steroids. It saves time. It wins.

It’s a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

Hmm. As I recall the context was Dave Winer trying to rally support so that RSS would “bust through” if certain fundamental changes take place in the Web, including fairly major ones, like centralization of all subscriptions. Dave was responding to Fred Wilson’s opinion that RSS is not “brain-dead simple” enough for everyone to get.

My argument is simple: I don’t like RSS readers, and unless someone comes up with a set of appliances (which could certainly exploit RSS, note) that match the way I like to wander around on the web, I don’t think they will come to replace the foraging mode that I have found to be most productive. I am holding out for something closely allied with instant messaging, where RSS feeds related to buddies would alert me to new posts, and then I could click-through to read them in situ (this is the fabled Nerdvana client I have been wishing for out loud for so long).

And, no, Steve, I haven’t forgotten how to breathe just because I think this first generation of RSS tools are inadequate, even if Robert Scoble’s use of them has become as natural as breathing for him.

Steve Boyd on RSS “breaking through”

Dave Winer is poking at an important issue — How RSS can bust through — building on Fred Wilson’s statement that “RSS has to become brain-dead simple to use.” Fred was writing about RSS as a replacement for many sorts of commercial email — newsletters and the like. Dave is making a case for helping RSS to “break through”, meaning a more widespread adoption, I guess. But, ultimately, I think he’s on the wrong track, based on these points:

  1. It must be easy to find relevant feeds. Too much hunt and peck is involved. The reason My.Yahoo and iTunes have been successful is that they centralize a lot of the discovery, they make it easy to find stuff you might be interested in. But not easy enough to qualify for brain-dead simplicity. That’s why we’re working on reading lists, trying to drive adoption of the new practice by the industry. If, when you get started using an aggregator, it gives you some interesting feeds, and then as time goes by gives you more, without you having to do anything, that’s going to make the finding of relevant feeds a passive thing. Until you’re ready to take over, you can ride the bus without learning to drive. I think this is going to get us another 15 or 20 percent of web users into the RSS world.
  2. Subscription has to be centralized. When Microsoft invited me in, in April of last year, to hear their RSS strategy, I think they expected me to object to their centralizing subscription for Windows users; they were surprised when I didn’t. I had already come to the conclusion that subscription had to be handled in the browser, because that’s where the impulse to subscribe happens. We knew this back in 2001, when we implemented the Radio coffee mug that made subscription a one-click operation. The problem of course is that our method only worked for Radio. Any of these techniques is going to work with only one destination, that’s why there has to be just one destination, why subscription needs to be centralized.

    Microsoft didn’t go far enough. They only solved the problem for Windows. In 2006 that’s not even a very large part of the world, because a large number of people who subscribe, do it through web-based services like Bloglines or My.Yahoo, and more will over time. The Microsoft approach doesn’t work for them. If I subscribe to something using their desktop service, it only registers with software that runs on my desktop. It doesn’t inform My.Yahoo, for example. Now, Microsoft argues that Yahoo can install a toolbar that runs on the desktop, but come on, we don’t want a proliferation new stuff loading into the OS. That’s how we got in all the malware trouble. We don’t need to open that kind of Pandora’s Box. What we need is a centralized subscription public service. It’s not a technological problem, it’s a political and economic problem. In order for RSS to grow to the next level, tech companies have to stop seeking lock-in on subscriptions.

    I’ve suggested to Yahoo that they run this service. Of the top three net companies (the others being Google and Microsoft) they’re the least controversial, imho. All that would be required is that they support OPML export for My.Yahoo subscription lists, and commit to keeping it open for perpetuity. The last part is the hard part of course. Now perhaps we could get a university involved, they have politics too, but people seem to trust universities more than they trust for-profit businesses. Something to think about.

    Now once we have a single place for subscriptions, which is a real tall order, then all kinds of services can be built off that. It’s like the domain name system again, and perhaps that’s the way to implement it. We’re lucky that RSS is still a fairly close-knit community, and there is leadership that works, somewhat. The small tech companies and at least two of the large ones (Apple, Google) don’t participate, they blaze their own trails, but the publishing industry and most of the large tech companies are still in the mode of cooperating. So now may be a time it can work. And reading lists buy us some time.

Yikes. Where to begin?

First of all, the problem of finding ‘relevant feeds’ — Dave seems to implicitly believe this is an area that has matured, and that the current notion of Yahoo directories or iTunes music distribution should simply be repurposed. I don’t think so. Just take the example of music and iTunes. iTunes is a great service if you know what you want to buy, but if you are trying to find new music, a solution like Last.fm or Pandora is a lot more useful. Last.fm is a social solution, where the music playing habits of other, likeminded individuals can be used to inform you of music you might like to listen too. I have found my musical horizons greatly expanded in this way. Note that this from-the-edge solution has no center: while there is a giant directory of music at Last.fm, the most obvious way to get at music is through other people. The approach is totally socialized. So the very hard problem of finding stuff that’s good to read on subjects of interest is made somewhat easier: we seek to read what others we respect are reading. So the notion of reading lists has real merit, but why do they need to be centralized? If our writing is distributed, can’t our reading lists?

If Dave means that we are migrating to a My.Yahoo model, where we pull stuff we like onto a page, or into a reader, I opt out. I want to roam around, not be caged in, even if it is a cage of my own making.

If he is implicitly taking the stand that RSS readers are the best and only response to the “information overload” problem (a la Scott Karp’s “Focus on the User, Not the Technology”), I don’t buy it.

Secondly, the notion that subscription must be centralized — why, Dave? The experience of the web is managed a page at a time, as we drift around reading things and following links and searches. The RSS reader experience is a piss-poor way to experience the web, decoupling the sense of place associated with direct experience of blogs and other sites. There is an implicit assumption of efficiency, like Scoble’s contention that he would be unable to consume the amounts of writing that he does if he had to actually browse to the various locations. But that argument is something like asserting that a seven day tour of Europe that takes you to thirteen capitals is “better” than one that only involves two countries. Quantity has its points, but it is not the point.

I believe that we haven’t seen the killer app for RSS yet. It’s not RSS readers — which provide a layer of mediation into the Web that is patently bad. I don’t want all meals pre-cut into bite-sized portions. I want to see the stuff in author’s sidebars, their blogrolls, read the comments, look at the pictures. I want to feel the road, spend the extra day in Paris, check out the blog design. It’s a total experience, and the ersatz, deskinned environment inside of RSS readers is sterile by comparison.

The killer app will be the appliance — or set of appliances — that embody the metaphor of travel on the web: that will allow me to more easily stay up to date on ‘places’ and people of interest, to plan and execute ‘travel’ to those ‘places’ on the web, keep notes on my travels, and find new places to travel to.

If efficiencies are the issue, how about precacheing all the places I like to visit, based on RSS notification? Then I can still get out of the RSS reader box, but cut the time involved.

So I think RSS will play a big role in ‘active reading’ but it will not be the experience itself: it will support the experience, in various ways, but not subsume it.

I am really arguing for an esthetic appreciation of the experience of being what I have been calling the “active reader” while Dave’s focus is on the more-or-less industrial scaling of RSS as the foundation of a new model of communication. But I don’t think the centralization of subscription is needed, or even attractive. On the contrary, initiatives like memeorandum show the promise of new forms of aggregation — leveraging RSS under the hood — that reveal social connections and distributed conversation across groups of people. Memeorandum is an example of an experience made much less rich when presented in the RSS readerized format: a stream of chunks with no apparent relationships.

The web is not a pipe, streaming bits onto our eyeballs. It is a world of people, and the social aspects are the most interesting. It is people that are the best source of guidance, advice, and pointers to things worth reading. Throw away your readers, and let’s beg the app makers to come up with tools that make the experience of roaming and reading the web richer, not homogenized.

Kottke on Blogs versus the NY Times in Google

Kottke presages the results of a bet between Martin Niseholtz of the NY Times and Dave Winer: whether blogs or the NY Times would have higher authority (from the Google perspective) in 2007. And the answer, today?

[from Blogs versus the NY Times in Google (kottke.org)]

Here’s the overall results, excluding the Judith Miller search:

Overall winner (in spirit): Media (beating citizen media 6-2).

Overall winner (actual): Blogs (beating the NY Times 6-2).

Some observations:

My feeling is that Mr. Nisenholtz will likely lose his bet come 2007. Even though the nytimes.com fares very well in getting linked to by the blogosphere, it does very poorly in Google. This isn’t exactly surprising given that most NY Times articles disappear behind a paywall after a week and some of their content (TimesSelect) isn’t even publicly accessible at all.

There’s a lot of analysis that I have skipped, because I want to dig into the real issue: will blogs have higher authority than traditional media from the perspective of individuals? After all, Google is a proxy, a channel, to the opinions of the greater public.

We should determine how to measure the authority of blogs directly, through surveys or polls. My bet:

  • A surprisingly large proportion — 75% or more — of those who are online regularly will, by 2007, state that the most authoritative sources of information for subjects of importance are blogs. Note the caveat — “subjects of importance” — which is not an attempt to mince words, but on the contrary to point out infovore dynamics. If I am deeply interested in social software, I will think that the most important authorities in that area are bloggers; however, if I am vaguely interested in modern art, I may not expend the energy to track down the most authoritative thinkers, and instead settle for the middle brow coverage in my local paper.

  • Those who are not online regularly will not see the same seismic shift to blog authority; but by 2007, in the Western world, these numbers will have slipped another 10% or more. Old fogeys, like my 80-year-old dad, will still reject the Internet, and will view television and other push media as the most reliable source of news and information. The youth demographic, and the connectroids, will all swing the other way.

  • Notable pockets of resistence:
    • Media professionals: no surprise, they will read their own junk, and state that — for a long list of reasons — it’s just better

    • Politicians: these guys live in a bubble, and have learned how to play the opaque game that is the hallmark of politico-journalism. Bloggers are less inclined to go along with concealing identities — “A highly placed source in the State Department…” — that is a sine-qua-non in the grey zone of political converage, as just one example of the new ethos to come.

    • Corporations, especially CEOs — another group that resides in the psychobubble of media adulation. On one hand, traditional media appears to be poking and prodding at the nutso deals that high-flying CEOs are getting from happy-to-oblige boards, but on the other, even left-leaning media has conformed itself to the power structure of modern industry, so the oligarchs will find it easier to consume traditional media.

    • Religious groups — some may take up the use of blogs, when they have not become closely allied with tradional media (like China), but wherever they are free to proselytize and are seen as a part of the mainstream, they will more closely affiliate with traditional media.

The blog phenomenon is a solidly middle-class, professional-class revolution. An intelligent and educated populace who have decided to regain control of media, rejecting the self-annointed priesthood of the church of journalism. Many or most of the pillars of pre-blog civilization will cling to traditional notions of media authority, and argue that bloggers are not, well, housebroken, accurate, or respecters of authority. Although, for the great majority of the online intelligensia, who aren’t concerned that we tend not to say “Sir” and “Ma’am” a lot, bloggers will have become the authorities.