What About The Weak Ties?

Once again, people are missing the most important aspect of Twitter community in their endless confirmation of Dunbar’s constant:

KFC, Human Brain Limits Twitter Friends To 150

[…] it’s easy to imagine that social networking technology finally allows humans to surpass the Dunbar number.

Not so say Bruno Goncalves and buddies at Indiana University. They studied the network of links created by 3 million Twitter users over 4 years. These tweeters sent each a whopping 380 million tweets.

But how to define friendship on Twitter. Goncalves and co say it’s not enough simply to follow or be followed by somebody for there to be a strong link.

Instead, there has to be a conversation, an exchange of tweets. And these conversation have to be regular to be a sign of a significant social bond, so occasional contacts don’t count.

Goncalves and pals used these rules to reconstruct the social network of all 3 million tweeters and studied how these networks evolve.

It turns out that when people start tweeting, their number of friends increases until they become overwhelmed. Beyond that saturation point, the conversations with less important contacts start to become less frequent and the tweeters begin to concentrate on the people they have the strongest links with.

So what is the saturation point? Or, in other words, how many people can tweeters maintain contact with before they get overwhelmed? The answer is between 100 and 200, just as Dunbar predicts.

“This finding suggests that even though modern social networks help us to log all the people with whom we meet and interact, they are unable to overcome the biological and physical constraints that limit stable social relations,” say Goncalves and co.

The bottom line is this: social networking allows us to vastly increase the number of individual we can connect with. But it does nothing to change our capability to socialise. However hard we try, we cannot maintain close links with more than about 150 buddies.

a cognitive limit of 150±50 close friendships does not diminish the power of Twitter, which is derived from amplifying the power of weak ties, not strong ones.

A lot of slippery wordage here by KFC, like ‘maintain contact with’, which is not used in the most general sense, but in some exclusive, close friend sense. Bruno Goncalves and his colleagues merely sought confirmation of the Dunbar Constant, in terms of close connections, not whether or not we limit our contacts to 150±50.

But what about Twitter’s ability to increase the number of weak ties we have? Let’s take the Dunbar Constant as a given, in terms of the number of close relationships possible: strong ties. But Mark Granovetter made the his assertion about the the power of weak ties, saying that weak ties make a community rich because they allow the interaction between people that are dissimilar in background, opinions, or connections. A world made up of only strong ties would be highly fragmented, with tight groups of highly similar individuals. It is exactly the capability of Twitter to allow us to have more weak ties at a lower cost that makes it such a powerful medium.

Also, Damon Centola makes the case for networks based on weak ties being more socially dense, and therefore creating a better context for the diffusion of innovative ideas and practices.

So, studies that demonstrate — once again — that we converge on a cognitive limit of 150±50 close friendships does not diminish the power of Twitter, which is derived from amplifying the power of weak ties, not strong ones.

I expect that we will see a great deal of dismissive hand waving as a result of this research, saying more or less that all the other connection on Twitter, past the 150±50 strong ties, is worthless, a waste of time, and immature. But this will be wrong, and not supported by the evidence in this and other studies.



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futuramb:

Human Brain Limits Twitter Friends To 150  - Technology Review

I have to read this, but I maintain that we are capable of much greater degree of ‘continuous partial friendship’ (as David Weinberger styles it), and that social tools are the medium that makes that possible.

futuramb:

Human Brain Limits Twitter Friends To 150  - Technology Review

I have to read this, but I maintain that we are capable of much greater degree of ‘continuous partial friendship’ (as David Weinberger styles it), and that social tools are the medium that makes that possible.

Twitter will make us the Borg. Resistance is futile. And thats OK.

Clive Thompson has done a magisterial job in his exploration into the belly of streaming (or flow) applications, focusing on the mouthfeel of Twitter and Facebook, and doing what I would have thought was impossible: getting across the value of this foreign, hivemind experience to a hypothetical Everyman:

[from Brave New World of Digital Intimacy by Clive Thompson]

[…]

Social scientists have a name for this sort of incessant online contact. They call it “ambient awareness.” It is, they say, very much like being physically near someone and picking up on his mood through the little things he does — body language, sighs, stray comments — out of the corner of your eye. Facebook is no longer alone in offering this sort of interaction online. In the last year, there has been a boom in tools for “microblogging”: posting frequent tiny updates on what you’re doing. The phenomenon is quite different from what we normally think of as blogging, because a blog post is usually a written piece, sometimes quite long: a statement of opinion, a story, an analysis. But these new updates are something different. They’re far shorter, far more frequent and less carefully considered. One of the most popular new tools is Twitter, a Web site and messaging service that allows its two-million-plus users to broadcast to their friends haiku-length updates — limited to 140 characters, as brief as a mobile-phone text message — on what they’re doing. There are other services for reporting where you’re traveling (Dopplr) or for quickly tossing online a stream of the pictures, videos or Web sites you’re looking at (Tumblr). And there are even tools that give your location. When the new iPhone, with built-in tracking, was introduced in July, one million people began using Loopt, a piece of software that automatically tells all your friends exactly where you are.

For many people — particularly anyone over the age of 30 — the idea of describing your blow-by-blow activities in such detail is absurd. Why would you subject your friends to your daily minutiae? And conversely, how much of their trivia can you absorb? The growth of ambient intimacy can seem like modern narcissism taken to a new, supermetabolic extreme — the ultimate expression of a generation of celebrity-addled youths who believe their every utterance is fascinating and ought to be shared with the world. Twitter, in particular, has been the subject of nearly relentless scorn since it went online. “Who really cares what I am doing, every hour of the day?” wondered Alex Beam, a Boston Globe columnist, in an essay about Twitter last month. “Even I don’t care.”

Indeed, many of the people I interviewed, who are among the most avid users of these “awareness” tools, admit that at first they couldn’t figure out why anybody would want to do this. Ben Haley, a 39-year-old documentation specialist for a software firm who lives in Seattle, told me that when he first heard about Twitter last year from an early-adopter friend who used it, his first reaction was that it seemed silly. But a few of his friends decided to give it a try, and they urged him to sign up, too.

Each day, Haley logged on to his account, and his friends’ updates would appear as a long page of one- or two-line notes. He would check and recheck the account several times a day, or even several times an hour. The updates were indeed pretty banal. One friend would post about starting to feel sick; one posted random thoughts like “I really hate it when people clip their nails on the bus”; another Twittered whenever she made a sandwich — and she made a sandwich every day. Each so-called tweet was so brief as to be virtually meaningless.

But as the days went by, something changed. Haley discovered that he was beginning to sense the rhythms of his friends’ lives in a way he never had before. When one friend got sick with a virulent fever, he could tell by her Twitter updates when she was getting worse and the instant she finally turned the corner. He could see when friends were heading into hellish days at work or when they’d scored a big success. Even the daily catalog of sandwiches became oddly mesmerizing, a sort of metronomic click that he grew accustomed to seeing pop up in the middle of each day.

This is the paradox of ambient awareness. Each little update — each individual bit of social information — is insignificant on its own, even supremely mundane. But taken together, over time, the little snippets coalesce into a surprisingly sophisticated portrait of your friends’ and family members’ lives, like thousands of dots making a pointillist painting. This was never before possible, because in the real world, no friend would bother to call you up and detail the sandwiches she was eating. The ambient information becomes like “a type of E.S.P.,” as Haley described it to me, an invisible dimension floating over everyday life.

[…]

Online awareness inevitably leads to a curious question: What sort of relationships are these? What does it mean to have hundreds of “friends” on Facebook? What kind of friends are they, anyway?

In 1998, the anthropologist Robin Dunbar argued that each human has a hard-wired upper limit on the number of people he or she can personally know at one time. Dunbar noticed that humans and apes both develop social bonds by engaging in some sort of grooming; apes do it by picking at and smoothing one another’s fur, and humans do it with conversation. He theorized that ape and human brains could manage only a finite number of grooming relationships: unless we spend enough time doing social grooming — chitchatting, trading gossip or, for apes, picking lice — we won’t really feel that we “know” someone well enough to call him a friend. Dunbar noticed that ape groups tended to top out at 55 members. Since human brains were proportionally bigger, Dunbar figured that our maximum number of social connections would be similarly larger: about 150 on average. Sure enough, psychological studies have confirmed that human groupings naturally tail off at around 150 people: the “Dunbar number,” as it is known. Are people who use Facebook and Twitter increasing their Dunbar number, because they can so easily keep track of so many more people?

As I interviewed some of the most aggressively social people online — people who follow hundreds or even thousands of others — it became clear that the picture was a little more complex than this question would suggest. Many maintained that their circle of true intimates, their very close friends and family, had not become bigger. Constant online contact had made those ties immeasurably richer, but it hadn’t actually increased the number of them; deep relationships are still predicated on face time, and there are only so many hours in the day for that.

But where their sociality had truly exploded was in their “weak ties” — loose acquaintances, people they knew less well. It might be someone they met at a conference, or someone from high school who recently “friended” them on Facebook, or somebody from last year’s holiday party. In their pre-Internet lives, these sorts of acquaintances would have quickly faded from their attention. But when one of these far-flung people suddenly posts a personal note to your feed, it is essentially a reminder that they exist. I have noticed this effect myself. In the last few months, dozens of old work colleagues I knew from 10 years ago in Toronto have friended me on Facebook, such that I’m now suddenly reading their stray comments and updates and falling into oblique, funny conversations with them. My overall Dunbar number is thus 301: Facebook (254) + Twitter (47), double what it would be without technology. Yet only 20 are family or people I’d consider close friends. The rest are weak ties — maintained via technology.

This rapid growth of weak ties can be a very good thing. Sociologists have long found that “weak ties” greatly expand your ability to solve problems. For example, if you’re looking for a job and ask your friends, they won’t be much help; they’re too similar to you, and thus probably won’t have any leads that you don’t already have yourself. Remote acquaintances will be much more useful, because they’re farther afield, yet still socially intimate enough to want to help you out. Many avid Twitter users — the ones who fire off witty posts hourly and wind up with thousands of intrigued followers — explicitly milk this dynamic for all it’s worth, using their large online followings as a way to quickly answer almost any question.

Thompson begins to flirt, here, with the topic that he and I spoke about at considerable length (but which wound up on the cutting room floor, perhaps destined for a second article?) which is the applicability of this sort of streaming in the work context.

The benefits of the hivemind that arises from becoming embedded in a streaming community are potentially enormous, and the implications for business are significant. Strengthening weak ties — increasing the Dunbar Constant, in a real sense — could lead to a very different context for work, in the future. One as different from the conventional notions we have about business collaboration, organization and so on, as web-based streaming relationships are from older, offline forms of interaction and involvement.

I have maintained for years that social tools are specifically different from other tools we use to interact in that they shape culture. They are not principally about communication, or number crunching: they are in the business of changing what we think is right and wrong, what we think is important, and how we perceive the world.

Thompson has captured that shift of consciousness, very well indeed.