Facebook Privacygate Continues

The furor about the Facebook Privacygate continues, with all sorts of people making grand pronouncements:

Henry Blodgett, Ignore The Screams—Facebook’s Aggressive Approach Is Why It Will Soon Become The Most Popular Site In The World

Facebook often shares way more information with the world than its users know, expect, or want.  It consistently approaches innovation and privacy changes with a do-it-first-and-then-see-what-happens attitude, which enrages those who feel it should ask permission first.  And it has often done a bad job of explaining to users what it is doing, why, and when, as well as what control users have over this.

But Facebook’s aggressiveness on the privacy front is a big reason for the site’s success. The company will survive the latest PR flap, just as it has survived all the other PR flaps. And unless the latest blow-up scares it into changing its ways (let’s hope not), Facebook will continuing growing like a weed until it is by far the most popular web site in the world (and note what “most popular” means: It means that, despite the howling of a tiny minority, more people choose to spend more time on Facebook than any other site in the world).

From a business perspective, in other words, Facebook’s approach to innovation is smart. It’s not always popular, but it works. And if Facebook wants to maintain its competitive edge, it will do what it has to do to smooth over the latest blow-up, and then go forth with the same approach and attitude it has had all along.

Step back and think about what Facebook is doing here.  It is pioneering an entirely new kind of service, one that most of its users have never seen before, one with no established practices or rules.  It is innovating in an area—the fine line between public and private—that has always freaked people out. It is allowing people to communicate and share information in ways they never have before. It is making decisions that affect hundreds of millions of people.  And it is trying to stay a step ahead of competitors that would like nothing better than to see it get scared and conservative and thus leave itself open to getting knocked off.

[…]

As loud as the recent screams have been, they will likely be forgotten in a month.  If they aren’t forgotten, Facebook can just roll back some of the changes that freak people out the most, just as it did a few years ago with Beacon, but keep the rest.

I actually don’t buy this argument at all. Facebook was growing very quickly with it’s old school form of privacy controls. It’s only after Twitter rejected Zuckerberg’s offers that he decided to throw privacy totally out the window, and subsequent privacy policy changes have enraged nearly everyone that understands what’s going on. It is not smart to disregard the serious issues here, hunker down in a PR bomb shelter for a few weeks, and then get back to pissing everyone off.

I also don’t agree that Facebook is pioneering something totally new; there have been literally dozens of social networking sites with millions of users, and they all have privacy policies of some description.

I do agree with Blodgett that there is a fine line between privacy and publicy, but I don’t see that taking a pause to figure out what exactly the Facebook’s privacy policies should be cedes competitive space to competitors. And even if it does, it should be done, anyway.

Innovation should not lead to users feeling that they are being raped, even if Blodgett and other boosters think it makes for good business.

danah boyd moves in a quite opposite direction, suggesting that Facebook has become a social utility, and therefore should be regulated:

danah boyd, Facebook Is A Utility; Utilities Get Regulated

Throughout Kirkpatrick’s “The Facebook Effect”, Zuckerberg and his comrades are quoted repeated as believing that Facebook is different because it’s a social utility. This language is precisely what’s used in the “About Facebook” on Facebook’s Press Room page. Facebook never wanted to be a social network site; it wanted to be a social utility. Thus, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Facebook functions as a utility.

And yet, people continue to be surprised. Partially, this is Facebook’s fault. They know that people want to hear that they have a “choice” and most people don’t think choice when they think utility. Thus, I wasn’t surprised that Elliot Schrage’s fumbling responses in the NYTimes emphasized choice, not utility: “Joining Facebook is a conscious choice by vast numbers of people who have stepped forward deliberately and intentionally to connect and share… If you’re not comfortable sharing, don’t.”

In my post yesterday, I emphasized that what’s at stake with Facebook today is not about privacy or publicity but informed consent and choice. Facebook speaks of itself as a utility while also telling people they have a choice. But there’s a conflict here. We know this conflict deeply in the United States. When it comes to utilities like water, power, sewage, Internet, etc., I am constantly told that I have a choice. But like hell I’d choose Comcast if I had a choice. Still, I subscribe to Comcast. Begrudgingly. Because the “choice” I have is Internet or no Internet.

[…]

Your gut reaction might be to tell me that Facebook is not a utility. You’re wrong. People’s language reflects that people are depending on Facebook just like they depended on the Internet a decade ago. Facebook may not be at the scale of the Internet (or the Internet at the scale of electricity), but that doesn’t mean that it’s not angling to be a utility or quickly becoming one. Don’t forget: we spent how many years being told that the Internet wasn’t a utility, wasn’t a necessity… now we’re spending what kind of money trying to get universal broadband out there without pissing off the monopolistic beasts because we like to pretend that choice and utility can sit easily together. And because we’re afraid to regulate.

And here’s where we get to the meat of why Facebook being a utility matters. Utilities get regulated. Less in the United States than in any other part of the world. Here, we like to pretend that capitalism works with utilities. We like to “de-regulate” utilities to create “choice” while continuing to threaten regulation when the companies appear too monopolistic. It’s the American Nightmare. But generally speaking, it works, and we survive without our choices and without that much regulation. We can argue about whether or not regulation makes things cheaper or more expensive, but we can’t argue about whether or not regulators are involved with utilities: they are always watching them because they matter to the people.

[…]

I cannot imagine that Facebook wants to be regulated, but I fear that it thinks that it won’t be. There’s cockiness in the air. Personally, I don’t care whether or not Facebook alone gets regulated, but regulation’s impact tends to extend much further than one company.  […] I just wish that Facebook would’ve taken a more responsible path so that we wouldn’t have to deal with what’s coming. And I wish that they’d realize that the people they’re screwing are those who are most vulnerable already, those whose voices they’ll never hear if they don’t make an effort.

danah takes the metaphor of being a ‘utility’ instead of an application to the logical conclusion. Other applications certainly have that characteristic, like instant messaging. Back when AOL was acquiring Times Warner the Justice Department considered AOL’s dominance in IM as a societal issue, and blocked AOL from adding voice and video support for years afterward, allowing Yahoo and MSN a competitive advantage. In essence, the Justice department was regulating that industry to ensure fairness and choice for users.

A similar case can be made for social networking, today. When so many people rely on these services — like Facebook, MySpace, and Twitter — to work and play, and the actions of the largest players in this space impact hundreds of millions worldwide, and perhaps a hundred million or more US citizens, the US government should be involved in regulating this corner of the communications landscape.

If the government takes the side of the individual in the debate about Net Neutrality, certainly it must take the side of the individual in the face of actions taken by companies like Facebook that can cause societal harm. It is insufficient, as danah states, to say to users ‘You don’t like how we are running our application? Fine, just quit!’ The phone company is not allowed to do that, and neither are internet providers, or the electric company.

I’m with danah: this marketplace is ripe for regulation and reform. New and untried forms of advertising based on strip mining users’ information, considered private only a few months ago, need to be examined closely, not matter how happy they make VCs and market mavens like Henry Blodgett.

We are moving quickly into a web where people are voluntarily sharing more and more personal information, a world based increasingly on publicy instead of privacy. This transition is happening by the decisions of millions, on an independent basis, when they reveal their location, their purchasing preferences, or what they ate for lunch. But, as I wrote the other day,

Even though I am an advocate for publicy — living life in the open on the web — I am by no means an advocate for having it jammed down our throats by a unilateral change in the Terms Of Service agreement by a powerful corporation.

from Facebook Apologists Miss The Point: Facebook Isn’t The Future

Fred Wilson parses the situation pretty succinctly:

Fred Wilson, Privacy and the Treacherous Middle Ground

 The problem Facebook is having right now is that they are sort of private and sort of public. I think of them as a public channel. I don’t post anything to Facebook that I don’t want everyone to see. But that is not how many of their users see them. I believe Facebook is going to have to choose to be either totally public or totally private or they are going to gradually cede their social graph to services that stake out the totally public or totally private territory.

Privacy is pretty black and white. It either is or it isn’t. And trying to have it both ways won’t work.

Amen.

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Twitter Is Doing Exactly What Fred Wilson Said

I have been so heads down on the Social Business Edge event (1pr 19, in NYC; being livestreamed at http://www.livestream.com/socialbusinessedge starting at 9:30am) that I hadn’t read the stories about Twitter’s Ev Williams announcing their own URL shortener in in the works.

They have a URL shortener working now, for direct messages, ostensibly as a way to track malicious sites and block them, so this isn’t that new on a technical basis. However, on a business basis it is more of what market watchers all have been guessing at, based on Fred Wilson’s post last week (see Twitter Raising The Infrastructure). He basically stated that URL shorteners were just filling a gap in Twitter’s core functionality.

That suggests that Twitter will try to develop the deep analytics that Bit.ly has built: it is a natural requirement for the media and corporate users of the microblogging service. However, as has been noted by John Borthwick, the CEO of Bit.ly, URL shorteners are not constrained just to the Twittersphere, and even in the Twittersphere on a small proportion of short URLs are generated by the Twitter webpage:

John Borthwick, Bit.ly and Platforms

Twitter.com pretty much stopped using bit.ly to shorten URL’s on Twitter.com in December.    Since last fall the bit.ly team and Twitter have been talking about this transition.    Today Twitter.com represents less than 1% of bit.ly links shortened — when the transition took place in December it was closer to 3-8%, depending on the UX on Twitter.com and the day.   We continue to work with the Twitter team and we are currently figuring out how to get key whitelabel URL’s working on Twitter.com.    The default shortening partnership worked well for a period of time – approximately six months — during a period of hyper growth. Today bit.ly is growing and continues to scale — irrespective of the change in rules last December re: shortening on Twitter.com.

Borthwick goes on to state that start-ups have to be careful about platforms, because although you need to build on them, they are fundamentally unstable and uncontrollable, like tectonic plates. He makes that case that start-ups need to diversify their reliance across multiple platforms. if possible.

John also takes a poke at Fred Wilson’s ‘filling holes’ argument:

Lastly, talk about holes and filling holes in platforms is misleading at best.    Take a list of emerging to mature companies — great companies … Is Groupon a hole in Facebook? Facebook a hole in Google?? Google is a hole in Microsoft???  Microsoft in IBM????  Maybe it’s holes all the way down?    Innovation — building great companies — is about finding, filling and even creating holes.   But entrepreneurs shouldn’t — and most don’t — focus on filling holes in other people’s platforms — they should think about how to build great things — things that in 2010 may be bootstrapped on platforms but great products, products that people love, products that move people to organize their world differently, or to see the world differently.   The slogan “Think different” captured most if not all of what entrepreneurs need.   After 30yrs of personal computing history we have a lot of platform and application history to draw from — Apple understands this very well, so does Google,  same for Microsoft, Amazon, and Ebay.  And yes — once again, the cycle of innovation is turning – great new platforms are emerging and great businesses will be developed on of these new platforms.

Instructive lessons to learn all around. To Twitter, the world may look like a bunch of holes, but Borthwick points out that Bit.ly, at least, is more than a hole to be filled.

[disclosure: I am an advisor to Bit.ly and have a financial interest in the company.]

Twitter Raising The Infrastructure: App Builders Better Run For The Ultrastructure

So, Fred Wilson’s recent blog post (see Fred Wilson Plotting Twitter’s Future) turns out not to have been the ramblings of philosophical market observer: it looks more like the starter’s gun at the outset of a footrace.

He suggested that Twitter might start to fill ‘holes’ in its architecture, holes that may be occupied by other applications built by third parties. Then, the next day, they announced the roll out of a ‘official’ Twitter client for Blackberry, and today, Ev announced the acquisition of Atebits, the maker of Tweetie, the most popular iPhone client:

Ev Williams, Twitter for iPhone

Twitter has been growing by leaps and bounds around the world. Mobile has always been a focus for us—starting with SMS which lead to the 140 character limit. People everywhere should be able to access Twitter without friction or confusion. Careful analysis of the Twitter user experience in the iTunes AppStore revealed massive room for improvement. People are looking for an app from Twitter, and they’re not finding one. So, they get confused and give up. It’s important that we optimize for user benefit and create an awesome experience.

We’re thrilled to announce that we’ve entered into an agreement with Atebits (aka Loren Brichter) to acquire Tweetie, a leading iPhone Twitter client. Tweetie will be renamed Twitter for iPhone and made free (currently $2.99) in the iTunes AppStore in the coming weeks. Loren will become a key member of our mobile team that is already having huge impact with device makers and service providers around the world. Loren’s work won the 2009 Apple Design Award and we will eventually launch Twitter for iPad with his help.

Note there is no fiddle-faddle about the name: they immediately rebranded to ‘Twitter for iPhone’.

And the motivation? People are confused that there is no Twitter branded client, so Twitter has decided to do the right thing and give them one. No mention of the existing players in those niches, and all a week before the developers conference.

Here’s what is happening: Twitter is consolidating its position at the center of the ecosystem it has engendered, and as part of that functionality that is deemed necessary to the infrastructure is going to be built by them, or at least owned by them through acquisition.

The old model had a lot of holes, like search, clients, Url shortening, pictures, and geolocation. These niches had many players trying to establish themselves, creating a rich ultrastructure above the platform:

Twitter started to buy some companies to fill glaring holes (like Summize for search) and they have built some parts of other capabilities (like their own URL shortener for direct messages), but mostly the maps was still a mess.

Now, they have bought Tweetie, built a client for Blackberry, and they are moving toward a new theory of where the platform begins and ends:


Of course there is no saying that Twitter will leave the line there. They are going to have to make their roadmap clear at the upcoming Chirp developer conference, so that third parties can make reasonable investments in new applications without the fear that Twitter will step on their toes.

However, I am making a bet. I am sure that Twitter realizes the value of analytics: the treasure of information about the flow in Twitter can’t be treated as a side show, because it is the show. Therefore, I am predicting that Twitter will build or buy technology to capture all sorts of information — what links are streaming by, who’s using what hashtags, and sentiment about brands — this is enormously valuable. Acquisition of companies like Radian6, bit.ly and a few others would make sense, especially considering the value to large companies, media, and even political parties.


The other ultrastructure niches really make sense as independents. Consider games: they come and go, like hit music, and it requires a big sprawling community of developers. Not a good fit inside a single monolithic company. The same is true with communities, like Stocktwits. And obviously, niche apps.

***

So, Wilson’s shot was heard round the world, and now Tweetie is part of the new Twitter infrastructure.

This won’t mean the end of competition by players like Tweetdeck or Seesmic. These have large and dynamic communities of users. But we have to see how Twitter plays this nesw game. Will they use the same APIs as everyone else, or will they exploit their knowledge and access to the inner workings of Twitter’s technology to make their own offerings faster and more reliable, a sort of Microsoft approach? Will Twitter transform itself into a Salesforce-like platform, with hundreds of integrated offerings, but owning the CRM heart of the platform?

I am sure we will hear these questions at Chirp, and although I won’t be attending (conflict with work on my own event on 19 Apr, Social Business Edge), I will be watching the Twitter stream from the event very closely.

[disclosure: Bit.ly is a client of mine, and I have a financial interest in the company.]

Update on Saturday, April 10, 2010 at 1:01PM

This looks like the weekend’s big tech news story:

Daniel Ionescu / PC World:   Twitter Gets Official iPhone, Blackberry Apps Dare Obasanjo aka Carnage4Life:   Twitter Slaps Developers in the Face and How They Can Fix It Greg Jarboe / Search Engine Watch:   Newspaper Blogs Break Story of Twitter’s Acquisition of Tweetie Marshall Kirkpatrick / ReadWriteWeb:   Why Twitter Buying Tweetie is Great News Stowe Boyd / /message:   Twitter Raising The Infrastructure: App Builders Better Run For The Ultrastructure John C Abell / Epicenter:   With Tweetie Acquisition, Twitter Locks On Mobile Zee / The Next Web:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie. Launches on the iPhone. Mathew Ingram / Fortune:   Twitter nabs top app maker Brad Linder / mobiputing:   Twitter acquires Tweetie, introduces official iPhone Twitter app Dave Winer / Scripting News:   Twitter Week for client developers Mark Evans / Twitterrati:   Tweetie: The Start of Twitter’s M&A Activity? Ben Parr / Mashable!:   BREAKING: Twitter Acquires Tweetie CellPassion:   Twitter acquires Tweetie, to make it the official Twitter iPhone app Dan Moren / Macworld:   Twitter acquires Tweetie developer Atebits Shane Richmond / blogs.telegraph.co.uk:   Twitter buys Tweetie Stephen Bennett / GeekSmack:   Twitter acquires Tweetie for iPhone Kiet Chieng / App Advice:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie, Will Become Official Client On iPhone Jason Kincaid / TechCrunch:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie GigaOm / Silicon Alley Insider:   Twitter Buys Tweetie, Adds Fuel to Developer Fires Rafat Ali / paidContent:   Twitter Makes First Client Acquisition: Buys Tweetie For iPhone Client; What’s Next? Alexia Tsotsis / The Snitch:   Twitter, Now Filling Its Own Hole Peter Kafka / MediaMemo:   Twitter Goes Shopping, Comes Home With Tweetie. Next? Mike Schramm / TUAW:   Breaking: Twitter acquires Tweetie, will make it official and free Seth Weintraub / 9 to 5 Mac:   Twitter buys Tweetie, iPhone app to become free Charles Hudson’s Weblog:   Three Reminders about Platform Businesses (Apple, Twitter, and Facebook) Jay Hathaway / Download Squad:   Twitter acquires Tweetie, hires developer Loren Brichter Rene Ritchie / TiPb:   Tweetie to become official Twitter for iPhone Jim Dalrymple / The Loop:   Twitter buys Tweetie Ray Basile / iPhone Savior:   Twitter Buys Tweetie As Their Official iPhone App Phil Nickinson / Android Central:   Twitter buys Tweetie for iPhone; which Android client would you serve up? Krishnan Subramanian / diversity.net.nz:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie, What’s Next? Jesse David Hollington / iLounge:   Twitter acquires Tweetie, to become official Twitter app Krishnan Subramanian / CloudAve:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie, What’s Next? Scott Beale / Laughing Squid:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie iPhone Client Ben Metcalfe Blog:   Twitter continues on the offensive: now iPhone Federico Viticci / MacStories:   Twitter Acquires Tweetie, Becomes “Twitter for iPhone” Soon Free in the App Store Daniel Kaszor / FP Posted:   FP Tech Desk: Twitter aquires Tweetie, renames it Twitter for iPhone » All Related Discussion

Update on Sunday, April 11, 2010 at 9:18AM

Interesting piece by VC Mark Suster (Twitter’s Acquisition, Chirp & Managing Developer Relationships) on the Twitter Atebits acquisition and what it means.

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Fred Wilson Plotting Twitter’s Future

Fred Wilson has written a post about Twitter’s future, one that reads like a market analyst wrote it. The problem is, Fred is one of the original investors in Twitter, and sits on the board, so I have to wonder what this is all about. Is this Twitter policy? Did he pass this by the management there? Is he going public with this a week before the Twitter developer conference to prepare people for a big announcement? Is he attempting to influence policy by taking an argument public?

Fred Wilson, The Twitter Platform’s Inflection Point

Which brings me to the title of this post. I’ve been thinking a lot about the Twitter Platform and Ecosystem recently. I think it is at an inflection point, much like the desktop software and hardware business was in the mid 80s as the desktop platform started to mature.

Much of the early work on the Twitter Platform has been filling holes in the Twitter product. It is the kind of work General Computer was doing in Cambridge in the early 80s. Some of the most popular third party services on Twitter are like that. Mobile clients come to mind. Photo sharing services come to mind. URL shorteners come to mind. Search comes to mind. Twitter really should have had all of that when it launched or it should have built those services right into the Twitter experience.

When you talk to a new user, they want to know how to post a photo to Twitter, they want to know “what is this bit.ly thing?”, they want to know how to get Twitter on their iPhone. Names like Summize, Twitpic, Tweetie make no sense to them. Of course, without Summize, Twitpic, and Tweetie we would not have the Twitter we have today. They and many other third party products and services filled out the holes in the Twitter product and made it work better.

But those services don’t feel like Lotus or Aldus to me. What are the products and services that create something entirely new on top of Twitter? I’ll come back to that question, but one more history lesson, this one recent history.

When Facebook platform launched, we saw a massive number of new products and services launched on The Facebook. But many were slight variations on existing Facebook features (like Superwall) or holes in the Facebook service. As Facebook closed up those holes and enhanced their own feature set, those apps fell to the wayside.

Note: Those Facebook apps that ‘fell by the wayside’ went out of business because Facebook decided to pull that functionality into the core platform. Is that what Twitter is going to do?

As one example, Twitter has rolled out its own URL shortener (http://twt.tl) which is being used in direct messages. Are they planning on replacing Bit.ly?

And then Fred goes on to suggest other areas that are likely to be hot for Twitter application development, presumably after Twitter fills the holes that other. earlier apps filled:

And because Twitter is so open and so lightweight, I am surprised that there aren’t more “new kinds of killer apps” to quote my friend who I started this post with.

Here’s are some places where I think we might see these killer apps emerge:

* Social Gaming - There have been a number of attempts to build social game experiences on Twitter. But I’m not aware of any successes of scale like we’ve had on the Facebook platform. I think we will see it emerge soon.

* Verticals - We have some successes to point to here like Stocktwits for finance and Flixup for movies but this is a wide open opportunity in most verticals and we haven’t seen as much effort here as I’d have expected.

* Enterprise - CoTweet comes to mind as well as the efforts that Salesforce has made to integrate Twitter. This is a huge opportunity.

* Discovery - This is one area where there is a significant amount of effort. Hunch, Listorious, TweetMeme, Cadmus, WeFollow, and MrTweet all come to mind.

* Analytics - While Twitter will obviously be delivering better analytics to its users, particularly its marketing and business users, I believe that there is always a market for third party analytics. Google Analytics is available for free and yet none of the large analytics providers have seen their businesses suffer. There is simply a voracious appetite for information on the Internet. So companies like bit.ly, Radian6, HubSpot, Scout Labs, and others have a bright future.

Again, I don’t know how to read this. Is Fred explaining what is to come? Is he trying to steer Twitter management? No matter what, he is not some dispassionate Twitter user wondering about what might come.

[Disclosure: I am an advisor to Bit.ly and I have a financial interest in the company’s future.]

Update on Thursday, April 8, 2010 at 5:24PM 

Nick Carlson came to the same conclusions I did.

Update on Thursday, April 8, 2010 at 5:30PM

Nick Carlson has more:

Responding to our post, Fred back-tracked, commenting, “that post was my work, not Twitter’s work. While i am on the board of twitter, I don’t work there and I don’t speak for them.”

But Twitter’s third-party developers don’t buy it.

One industry source nicely summarized what many others told us they were thinking, telling us, “Fred is lying to you.  Twitter was aware of his plans.  This was intentional to soften the blow later and provide advance notice.”

One big reason for all the skepticism? Yesterday, plenty of Twitter employees were cheer-leading Fred’s post.

Doug Williams, who helps run Twitter’s platform, tweeted, “Incredibly timely @fredwilson piece that all Twitter developers should read http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2010/04/the-twitter-platform.html.”

Ryan Sarver, Doug’s boss, re-tweeted Fred’s post and then later tweeted it again, asking his followers, “what are your thoughts on @fredwilson’s post? http://bit.ly/aruik7

Twitter analytics lead Kevin Wheil wrote, “Wow, @fredwilson nailed it:   http://bit.ly/b5RvlO.

Twitter product guy Josh Elmen wrote, “Great post on platforms and building innovation vs filling holes by @fredwilson: http://bit.ly/bkpqjv.”

A follower of Josh’s replied to that tweet, “I would be terrified reading Fred’s post if I was a hole filler startup. Thanks but now you die!” and Josh answered, “in the history of platforms, hole filling has always been a great place to start, but never a great place to end, right?”

All this cheerleading has Twitter developers very skittish. One of the guys behind one of the very most popular Twitter apps told us:

“It wouldn’t surprise me if they now deem it important to own more eyeballs. I don’t agree with this strategy but, as I said, I wouldn’t be surprised. [Twitter shouldn’t] underestimate the value of the innovation in the long tail. I hope this is not stifled if Twitter appear to be competing.”

We’ve asked Twitter CEO Ev Williams for a response to all this, but so far we’ve heard nothing.

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Fred Wilson on Making Twitter Smarter, And More Valuable

Fred Wilson mentioned a real breakthrough in the use of Twitter — and by extension, other microstreaming applications. The guys at Stocktwits (see Twitter Is The New Bloomberg) have created a Firefox extension that makes ‘tickers’ — the acronyms associated with stocks — active links pointing to the corresponding pages at Stocktwits.

As Fred puts it, this makes Twitter smarter:

[from Making Twitter Smarter]

This gets me excited. Because someone could do so much more with this idea. We have a few companies that are trying to extract meaning out of content on the web.

[…]

What if they and others put out similar extensions? Then twitter would get smarter. The links that people send around on twitter are one of the best things about the service. It’s like a live collaborative RSS reader. But if every tweet had links in that were added semantically, then we’d really have something.

Yes, that would be great.

But this is a rickety approach: people don’t want to add a plugin for every possible use of links within Twitter, and not everyone uses Firefox. And many people get their tweets from a client on the desktop.

The real solution is for Twitter to add this functionality into the platform, and allow members of the ecosystem to collaborate around this metaphor. This opens a big door for Twitter’s business model, because those partners would be willing to pay for the links to lead people from the open discourse on Twitter to their websites, These ‘hot tags’ could be a huge source of value to the community, and a way to make serious money for Twitter.

Also note that the same mechanism could be used for benign sorts of advertising. For example, I could be live twittering a conference, and the hashtag could be sponsored by the event, and could point to the event’s website instead of to hashtags.org, or whatever.

Freemium is a Dreamium

Last week, Fred Wilson called for a name for the now-common business model of web start-ups:

Give your service away for free, possibly ad supported but maybe not, acquire a lot of customers very efficiently through word of mouth, referral networks, organic search marketing, etc, then offer premium priced value added services or an enhanced version of your service to your customer base.

I offered this post and the term Turning Pro. But Fred has gone with the very good alternative, Fremium:

[from A VC: The Freemium Business Model]

And at the risk of calling the game before it’s over, I have to go with Freemium. I love the name, suggested by Jarid Lukin of the Flatiron portfolio company Alacra.

I am going to join in and use this term, too.

Fred Wilson on My Favorite Business Model: Turning Pro

Fred wants to know what we should call the Skype/Flickr/Trillian business model:

[from A VC: My Favorite Business Model]

Give your service away for free, possibly ad supported but maybe not, acquire a lot of customers very efficiently through word of mouth, referral networks, organic search marketing, etc, then offer premium priced value added services or an enhanced version of your service to your customer base.

[…]

The best examples of this business model are when the customer implicitly understands why the paid service has to cost money. More storage costs for photos or virtual storage are good examples. Termination costs on other carriers networks in the Skype model are another. When it is just additional features that don’t carry an incremental cost to offer, it may be harder to convert free users to paid users. But if your free service is loved and you do a good job articulating the value that comes with the paid service, you can convert to paying users with good results.

I would like to have a name for this business model. We’ve got words like subscription, ad supported, license, and ASP, that are well understood. Do we have a word for this business model? If so, I don’t know it.

I don’t think there is a term for this, but I will propose one: Turning Pro. People are free to play with the product, and there are basically no limitations on its use. And they come to love it, and use it a lot — treating the product as an amateur, who is doing what it does for love, not money — they reach the obvious juncture, and the product Turns Pro, and start paying.

More action on Advisory Capitalists

My recent post, Advisory Capital: A New Basis For Strategic Involvement, drew a range of commentary and critique. One theme I saw many times is that this is not an innovative idea, many people are doing it already. Indeed, several folks stated that this is the business model for their companies. Maybe I just the first to articulate it the way I did. Maybe it’s just timing.

I have read a dozen or more responses, and here I am pulling out the ones that strike a chord:

Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures wades in:

[from Advisory Capital]

I think Stowe is right that advisors have a growing role in the startup equation for many of the reasons that he articulates. But I think it isn’t possible to completely replace the role of the VC for a couple of reasons.

1 - Unless you have capital at risk or some other form of “skin in the game” like sweat equity, you cannot and will not feel the thrill of victory and agony of defeat that binds the VCs and entrepreneurs in startups. Capitalism works for a reason. Greed and fear are powerful forces. I have worked with many “independent directors” over the years. And they are often incredibly good directors who add value in all sorts of ways. But they don’t feel it in their gut the way the entrepreneur does. VCs, particualarly the best ones, do feel it in their gut. And so they are there for the entrepreneur when they need it most, joined at the hip with the risk/reward belt.

2 - There is a growing market of angel money that is sophisticated and acts a lot like VCs. There are even “super angels” like Pierre Omidyar, Mark Cuban, and the like who can invest as much or more than most VCs in a deal they like. These angels bring most of what a VC firm can bring to the table if they so choose and can write smaller checks. I’d suggest before entrepreneurs give equity to advisors for no cash, they think about angels instead.

The bottom line for me is that cash at risk is a critical part of the relationship between the entrepreneur and their VCs. It provides the foundation for all the other roles that the VC plays - advice, oversight, connections, etc. Without it you won’t get close to what you get with a VC.

I agree with Fred about “skin in the game,” and that’s why I push my clients to step up their typical advisory board stock grant from 0.25%-0.5% to something larger, so that the stake is enough to make a difference in my future. Regarding the cash, many times the founder themselves are not putting in hard cash: they are forgoing pay in order to invest sweat equity. That’s why I provide a 50% or more discount of my consulting rates when working with Advisory Service clients. I am investing the difference.

If entrepreneurs can get the knowledge, connections, and experience that an advisor like me brings to the table from an angel, great! Take the deal, take the money, and strap that angel to the harness. In the meantime, I play more of the role of a part-time founder.

Jeff Jarvis makes the best counter to Fred’s arguments:

[from The VC Olympics]

I think the point of Stowe’s post is that equity gives advisors the sense of material involvement in a startup that is better than consultation, and that by making such arrangements, one can get advice, connections, and expertise from people who are, in many cases, at least as qualified as the people who happen to have money.

Or here’s another way to put it: Money is a commodity, nobody’s is better than anybody else’s. But knowledge and connections are uniquely valuable. And in an time when startups need less money, then the relative value of knowledge increases.

Note that this is precisely the example that Publicis’ new Denuo is following. Now in their case, Publicis is a giant company that could, indeed, also invest capital. But so far as I know, Stowe Boyd isn’t filthy rich (yet). And yet his advice would be very valuable to many startups and they should find the way to get it without requiring him to invest.

The larger story here is that venture capital is not escaping the explosion of business models that is also hitting media, advertising, retail, and many other industries. So VCs, too, need to explore new models. Perhaps they need to find ways to involve — and compensate — networks of advisors to bring that knowledge to startups and to spread their own work and risk in finding and helping and managing relations with companies, so they can get involved with more companies at a smaller scale than they can afford to today. If you can no longer bring $5 million to 10 companies but can’t afford to manage 50 $1 million investments — because it stretches your real assets, which are attention and time — then maybe the way to scale is via Stowe’s model.

Fraser Kelton read my post and Fred’s response, and thinks we are both missing the middle:

[ from Advisory Capital? Not When VCs Do It Better]

Stowe argues that VCs can’t/won’t support start-ups with incubator-like services. Fred claims that VCs are vital for reasons other than nontraditional VC value-adds. (Fred, you don’t explicitly discuss your thoughts on a VC adding non-traditional VC value to a firm, which is the underlying idea of Stowe’s arguement. Where’s your mind on that?).

Why can’t an innovative VC firm compete, and gain a competitive advantage by realizing this trend in tech start-ups and adjust their service offering to fill the gap?

[…]

David Hsu, from The Wharton School, published a paper in the Journal of Finance, in August 2004, titled “What Do Entrepreneurs Pay for Venture Capital Affiliation?”. It’s an academic article - here’s the summary:

In the minds of entrepreneurs working to grow their fledgling technology companies, the intangibles brought to the table by their investors – experience and contacts – often are worth more than money itself… David found that offers from more reputable venture capitalists are three times more likely to be accepted by entrepreneurial companies and that, on average, these favored investors acquire start-up equity in the companies at a 10-14% discount.

“Reputation” is defined as the intangibles brought to the table by the investor, and are mainly limited, with respect to the study, to experience and contacts. Fair enough.

Personally, I think VCs are not the only ones in the world with social networks. A good advisor brings that to bear, as well.

Over at Cyclical, we are told that ideas are cheap:

[from Advisory Capital: Forgetting That Ideas are Cheap]

Having been both a consultant, a founder of several businesses, and heavily involved in startups, I have to say that I disagree with some of Stowe Boyd’s analysis of Advisory Capital. Stowe’s description of how a good advisor (or consultant to the business) should operate is bang on, but his expectations for reward with respect to ownership are way off.

Put simply, advisors or consultants who are working for salary (or a slightly reduced salary) are not taking significant risk in their role, and therefore should not expect much participation in the upside. Stowe writes:

A consultant is unlikely to want to part with a strategic concept that could make a client into a $100M player, potentially, in exchange for a per diem and the possibility of some downstream consulting, maybe, if you’re lucky.

IMHO, in a world where ideas flow extremely quickly and first-mover advantage is truly rare, simply having an idea or concept is worth little. If the ideas are that brilliant and worth that much and the advisor wishes to truly participate in the upside, then he or she should either work for deeply discounted rates (or for free), or start their own company to pursue the idea. Ideas are cheap, execution is the tough part. Quite simply, risk = potential reward.

I was trying to contrast the short term kind of relationships that I have experienced in the past, where clients seemed to want two days of intensive consultation — vetting their product, helping them lay out a go-to-market approach, assessing competitors’ products — rather than a long-term investment on both sides, which is what I think is the basis of advisory capital. They wanted a $100M dollar insight for a few thousand in consulting fees.

Nearly all the critics of the model I propose stress the need for investment, and that’s exactly what I am pushing for, as well: the long-term investment of the advisor’s attention to the challenges of the company.

Peter Caputa notes that the AC approach may solve a different problem in VC:

[from comments on the initial post]

The AC concept may be able to eliminate what has been a structural problem with the VC model: that the desires/needs of the VC are not aligned with those of the founders when it comes to cashing out. Paul Graham, and others have written extensively on this.

http://paulgraham.com/paulgraham/venturecapital.html

The cause is in large part due to areas unrelated to the founders or the start-up but rather to the business model of the VCs: their need to have a certain rate of return so they can continue to raise funds and the model where they expect the returns from one or two super star performers to in effect pay for the losses or mediocre results of the rest of their portfolio.

yes, the AC and the client — once the deal is struck, anyway — have the same interests, and the same payoff.

[Update: 27 Feb - I managed to miss an articulate detractor, Bernard Moon, who howls in his ADVISOR CAPITALISTS?… 1% OR MORE? HELLS NO!

Being cynical at times… well, a lot of the time, I see Stowe’s post as part of his pitch to drum up business in advising startups and position himself in a better light. After reading his post, I really don’t see much of a difference between an “advisor capitalists” and a regular advisor.

If I was building an advisory board, why would I give someone like Stowe 1% or more and others the typical .2%-.5% worth of equity (initial equity structure)? This can create a disincentive for the other advisors to put in their sweat since there would be such a large gap between an “advisor capitalist” and themselves in terms of equity but probably not in terms of time and effort. I’m speaking from my own experiences with advisors. As I posted before, some advisors you get to sit and be pretty on your board while others you have to play an active role in building your startup.

Even in my current role as an advisor to a mobile social networking play, I received the typical amount of equity (.2%-.5%). I communicate at least once a week with this startup, active in introductions, and active in their strategic development. Should I ask for more equity? No. From my own experience with advisory boards, I don’t think such activity warrants more equity. Stowe goes as far to state:

I believe we will see this boosted 5X, 10X, or more, to attract and retain powerful ACs.

Again I see this as positioning, and I also see this as crazy. Why would I give any advisor 2.5%-5%+ of my initial equity? Maybe if a contract was created where this advisor devotes 20+ hours per week. Even then would I sign up someone like Stowe who doesn’t have significant capital raising experience? Who cannot advise me on deal structure and provide their personal insights into the capital raising process? Hells no!



Yes, you are cynical. But, yes, I have significant capital raising experience: directly involved in raising over $20M since 1988, and indirectly, much more. Regarding the disencentives to other traditional advisors, I proposed that companies would increasingly have a small number of more involved advisors. If the existence of other players with more stock is a disencentive to advisors, then the differential between their tiny slice of stock and the monster shares of VCs and founders might be the reason that companies generally get so little out of them.

I also overlooked Tom Evslins exuberant posts on the subject. In the first, he agrees with the concept, and in the second recaps some of the debate swirling around it. And here’s a first: he has created a Wikipedia entry for advisory capital, saying

I created an entry in wikipedia for advisory capital because I think the discussion following Stowe Boyd’s introduction of the term is interesting and that wikipedia provides a good place to agree on a definition and draw out the distinction between advisory capital and venture capital on one hand and advisor capitalists and advisory board members on the other. This is also a good place to record either existing examples of advisory capital and/or future developments.

Steve Gillmor on Idiot Wind

 

Steve Gillmor says I was way off with my recent post about RSS (Reads, Not Feeds). (In fact, he titled his post, Idiot Wind, which might be his characterization of my speaking voice, but I doubt it.)

Stowe Boyd’s post about RSS is flawed. Flawed in that it is totally wrong. Scoble is right. Stowe is not. RSS will continue to dominate and eventually suck all the oxygen out of the glorious Web as we currently adore it. We as in Stowe. What possibly leads Stowe to the conclusion that RSS will not absorb all of the wonderful (sic) Web characteristics like blogrolls, whirling beanies, and other smoke and awe? RSS is the Web, Stowe. It’s the Web on steroids. It saves time. It wins.

It’s a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

Hmm. As I recall the context was Dave Winer trying to rally support so that RSS would “bust through” if certain fundamental changes take place in the Web, including fairly major ones, like centralization of all subscriptions. Dave was responding to Fred Wilson’s opinion that RSS is not “brain-dead simple” enough for everyone to get.

My argument is simple: I don’t like RSS readers, and unless someone comes up with a set of appliances (which could certainly exploit RSS, note) that match the way I like to wander around on the web, I don’t think they will come to replace the foraging mode that I have found to be most productive. I am holding out for something closely allied with instant messaging, where RSS feeds related to buddies would alert me to new posts, and then I could click-through to read them in situ (this is the fabled Nerdvana client I have been wishing for out loud for so long).

And, no, Steve, I haven’t forgotten how to breathe just because I think this first generation of RSS tools are inadequate, even if Robert Scoble’s use of them has become as natural as breathing for him.

Steve Boyd on RSS “breaking through”

Dave Winer is poking at an important issue — How RSS can bust through — building on Fred Wilson’s statement that “RSS has to become brain-dead simple to use.” Fred was writing about RSS as a replacement for many sorts of commercial email — newsletters and the like. Dave is making a case for helping RSS to “break through”, meaning a more widespread adoption, I guess. But, ultimately, I think he’s on the wrong track, based on these points:

  1. It must be easy to find relevant feeds. Too much hunt and peck is involved. The reason My.Yahoo and iTunes have been successful is that they centralize a lot of the discovery, they make it easy to find stuff you might be interested in. But not easy enough to qualify for brain-dead simplicity. That’s why we’re working on reading lists, trying to drive adoption of the new practice by the industry. If, when you get started using an aggregator, it gives you some interesting feeds, and then as time goes by gives you more, without you having to do anything, that’s going to make the finding of relevant feeds a passive thing. Until you’re ready to take over, you can ride the bus without learning to drive. I think this is going to get us another 15 or 20 percent of web users into the RSS world.
  2. Subscription has to be centralized. When Microsoft invited me in, in April of last year, to hear their RSS strategy, I think they expected me to object to their centralizing subscription for Windows users; they were surprised when I didn’t. I had already come to the conclusion that subscription had to be handled in the browser, because that’s where the impulse to subscribe happens. We knew this back in 2001, when we implemented the Radio coffee mug that made subscription a one-click operation. The problem of course is that our method only worked for Radio. Any of these techniques is going to work with only one destination, that’s why there has to be just one destination, why subscription needs to be centralized.

    Microsoft didn’t go far enough. They only solved the problem for Windows. In 2006 that’s not even a very large part of the world, because a large number of people who subscribe, do it through web-based services like Bloglines or My.Yahoo, and more will over time. The Microsoft approach doesn’t work for them. If I subscribe to something using their desktop service, it only registers with software that runs on my desktop. It doesn’t inform My.Yahoo, for example. Now, Microsoft argues that Yahoo can install a toolbar that runs on the desktop, but come on, we don’t want a proliferation new stuff loading into the OS. That’s how we got in all the malware trouble. We don’t need to open that kind of Pandora’s Box. What we need is a centralized subscription public service. It’s not a technological problem, it’s a political and economic problem. In order for RSS to grow to the next level, tech companies have to stop seeking lock-in on subscriptions.

    I’ve suggested to Yahoo that they run this service. Of the top three net companies (the others being Google and Microsoft) they’re the least controversial, imho. All that would be required is that they support OPML export for My.Yahoo subscription lists, and commit to keeping it open for perpetuity. The last part is the hard part of course. Now perhaps we could get a university involved, they have politics too, but people seem to trust universities more than they trust for-profit businesses. Something to think about.

    Now once we have a single place for subscriptions, which is a real tall order, then all kinds of services can be built off that. It’s like the domain name system again, and perhaps that’s the way to implement it. We’re lucky that RSS is still a fairly close-knit community, and there is leadership that works, somewhat. The small tech companies and at least two of the large ones (Apple, Google) don’t participate, they blaze their own trails, but the publishing industry and most of the large tech companies are still in the mode of cooperating. So now may be a time it can work. And reading lists buy us some time.

Yikes. Where to begin?

First of all, the problem of finding ‘relevant feeds’ — Dave seems to implicitly believe this is an area that has matured, and that the current notion of Yahoo directories or iTunes music distribution should simply be repurposed. I don’t think so. Just take the example of music and iTunes. iTunes is a great service if you know what you want to buy, but if you are trying to find new music, a solution like Last.fm or Pandora is a lot more useful. Last.fm is a social solution, where the music playing habits of other, likeminded individuals can be used to inform you of music you might like to listen too. I have found my musical horizons greatly expanded in this way. Note that this from-the-edge solution has no center: while there is a giant directory of music at Last.fm, the most obvious way to get at music is through other people. The approach is totally socialized. So the very hard problem of finding stuff that’s good to read on subjects of interest is made somewhat easier: we seek to read what others we respect are reading. So the notion of reading lists has real merit, but why do they need to be centralized? If our writing is distributed, can’t our reading lists?

If Dave means that we are migrating to a My.Yahoo model, where we pull stuff we like onto a page, or into a reader, I opt out. I want to roam around, not be caged in, even if it is a cage of my own making.

If he is implicitly taking the stand that RSS readers are the best and only response to the “information overload” problem (a la Scott Karp’s “Focus on the User, Not the Technology”), I don’t buy it.

Secondly, the notion that subscription must be centralized — why, Dave? The experience of the web is managed a page at a time, as we drift around reading things and following links and searches. The RSS reader experience is a piss-poor way to experience the web, decoupling the sense of place associated with direct experience of blogs and other sites. There is an implicit assumption of efficiency, like Scoble’s contention that he would be unable to consume the amounts of writing that he does if he had to actually browse to the various locations. But that argument is something like asserting that a seven day tour of Europe that takes you to thirteen capitals is “better” than one that only involves two countries. Quantity has its points, but it is not the point.

I believe that we haven’t seen the killer app for RSS yet. It’s not RSS readers — which provide a layer of mediation into the Web that is patently bad. I don’t want all meals pre-cut into bite-sized portions. I want to see the stuff in author’s sidebars, their blogrolls, read the comments, look at the pictures. I want to feel the road, spend the extra day in Paris, check out the blog design. It’s a total experience, and the ersatz, deskinned environment inside of RSS readers is sterile by comparison.

The killer app will be the appliance — or set of appliances — that embody the metaphor of travel on the web: that will allow me to more easily stay up to date on ‘places’ and people of interest, to plan and execute ‘travel’ to those ‘places’ on the web, keep notes on my travels, and find new places to travel to.

If efficiencies are the issue, how about precacheing all the places I like to visit, based on RSS notification? Then I can still get out of the RSS reader box, but cut the time involved.

So I think RSS will play a big role in ‘active reading’ but it will not be the experience itself: it will support the experience, in various ways, but not subsume it.

I am really arguing for an esthetic appreciation of the experience of being what I have been calling the “active reader” while Dave’s focus is on the more-or-less industrial scaling of RSS as the foundation of a new model of communication. But I don’t think the centralization of subscription is needed, or even attractive. On the contrary, initiatives like memeorandum show the promise of new forms of aggregation — leveraging RSS under the hood — that reveal social connections and distributed conversation across groups of people. Memeorandum is an example of an experience made much less rich when presented in the RSS readerized format: a stream of chunks with no apparent relationships.

The web is not a pipe, streaming bits onto our eyeballs. It is a world of people, and the social aspects are the most interesting. It is people that are the best source of guidance, advice, and pointers to things worth reading. Throw away your readers, and let’s beg the app makers to come up with tools that make the experience of roaming and reading the web richer, not homogenized.